{"id":3150,"date":"2025-02-15T15:48:36","date_gmt":"2025-02-15T12:48:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/?p=3150"},"modified":"2025-02-15T16:12:32","modified_gmt":"2025-02-15T13:12:32","slug":"emperyalizmin-krizi-jeopolitik-riskler-ve-olasiliklar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/2025\/02\/15\/emperyalizmin-krizi-jeopolitik-riskler-ve-olasiliklar\/","title":{"rendered":"Emperyalizmin krizi, jeopolitik riskler ve olas\u0131l\u0131klar"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Kapitalizm ciddi bir \u00e7oklu kriz i\u00e7inde ve insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 barbarl\u0131\u011fa, gezegenimizi ise \u00f6l\u00fcme s\u00fcr\u00fckl\u00fcyor. Cehennemi vaat etmek d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda verebilece\u011fi hi\u00e7bir \u015feyi olmayan bu k\u00fcresel jeopolitik sistem, i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu \u00e7oklu kriz ortam\u0131nda, ba\u015fat emperyalist g\u00fc\u00e7ler eliyle ekonomi politik arenada yeni bir sermaye birikim modeli ve k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte yeni bir politik sistem olu\u015fturmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu yeni d\u00f6nemin ekonomi politi\u011fi i\u00e7inde temel belirleyici kar\u015f\u0131t g\u00fc\u00e7ler, emperyalist \u00fclkelerin artan rekabeti ve onun kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda k\u00fcresel s\u0131n\u0131f m\u00fccadelesi olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kapitalizmin gezegenin t\u00fcm k\u0131lcal damarlar\u0131na yay\u0131lmas\u0131 son 30 y\u0131lda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekteki ilk depresyonu olan 2008 krizinin \u00fczerinden ise sadece 17 y\u0131l ge\u00e7ti. Bu s\u00fcrede bile, 30 y\u0131l \u00f6nce tarihin sonunu ve kapitalizmin ebedili\u011fini ilan edenlerin, ger\u00e7ekli\u011fin duvar\u0131na sert\u00e7e \u00e7arparak yok olu\u015funu izledik. \u015eimdilerde ise neoliberalizmin par\u00e7alan\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131, t\u00fcm de\u011ferlerinin bizzat emperyalizm i\u00e7inde tarihin \u00e7\u00f6pl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne g\u00f6nderili\u015fini izliyoruz. Verili \u00fcretim ili\u015fkileriyle \u00fcretici g\u00fc\u00e7lerin geli\u015fme dinami\u011fi aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eli\u015fki artt\u0131k\u00e7a, tarih yok olmak \u015f\u00f6yle dursun, k\u00fcrede daha da h\u0131zl\u0131 ak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>ABD emperyalizminin yeni ger\u00e7ekleri<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Biden d\u00f6nemi politikalar\u0131, kendisinden \u00f6nce gelen Trump\u2019\u0131n politikalar\u0131ndan yer yer ayr\u0131\u015fsa da iki apayr\u0131 noktay\u0131 temsil etmedi hi\u00e7bir zaman. \u00d6zellikle ABD\u2019nin \u00c7in ile olan rekabeti artt\u0131k\u00e7a d\u00fcnya ticaretini hegemonya alt\u0131na alma \u00e7abas\u0131 Biden d\u00f6neminde de \u015fiddetle s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. Bunun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ABD\u2019yi bir enerji tedarik\u00e7isi haline getirmeye ama\u00e7layan bug\u00fcn kendisini \u201cdrill baby drill\u201d slogan\u0131nda bulan, do\u011fay\u0131 f\u00fctursuzca tahrip etme politikas\u0131n\u0131 bizzat Biden da uygulad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>20 Ocak\u2019ta iktidara ikinci kez gelen Trump, Kuzey Atlantik\u2019i ilhak i\u00e7in ve d\u00fcnya kritik deniz ticaret rotalar\u0131nda tam egemenlik i\u00e7in harekete ge\u00e7ece\u011fini net bir \u015fekilde belirtti. Bu ama\u00e7la en b\u00fcy\u00fck rakibi \u00c7in\u2019e \u015fiddetli yapt\u0131r\u0131m ve y\u00fcksek g\u00fcmr\u00fck politikas\u0131 uygularken, kendisini desteklemeyenlere de g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi silah\u0131n\u0131 bir tehdit olarak masaya koymaktan \u00e7ekinmedi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump \u00f6nce Kanada\u2019ya %25 g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi getirme karar\u0131 ald\u0131. Sonra belirli ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda bu karar\u0131 30 g\u00fcn erteledi. \u0130ki \u00fclkenin ekonomileri fazlas\u0131yla entegre. ABD, Kanada kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u00fcrekli d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 veriyor (2024\u2019te 40.7 milyar dolar). \u00d6zellikle ABD\u2019nin kuzey eyaletleri Kanada mallar\u0131n\u0131n en \u00e7ok sat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6lge. Kanada ise ABD i\u00e7in mamul mal \u00fcreten bir fabrika gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Fakat g\u00fcmr\u00fck restine kar\u015f\u0131 Kanada da %25\u2019lik g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi karar\u0131 al\u0131nca bu \u00f6nlemler, kuzey eyaletlerde h\u0131zl\u0131 bir enflasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131 meydana getirebilirdi. \u015eimdilik kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 vergiler \u201certelendi\u201d. \u0130ki \u00fclkenin de ekonomik ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7inde bulunduklar\u0131 ekonomik krizin benzer dinamiklerde olmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kuzey Amerika\u2019da (Kanada ve ABD), pandemi sonras\u0131 enflasyon oranlar\u0131ndaki h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen ortalama reel \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 neredeyse ya\u015fanmad\u0131. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafik iki \u00fclkenin de enflasyon oran\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n saatlik \u00fccretlerdeki de\u011fi\u015fim \u00e7ok azd\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"700\" src=\"https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/grafik-1-1024x700.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3151\" style=\"width:373px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/grafik-1-1024x700.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/grafik-1-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/grafik-1-768x525.jpg 768w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/grafik-1.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Grafik 1: ABD ve Kanada y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonu<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>Nominal olarak \u00fccretler artsa da reelde \u00fccretler artm\u0131yor. Kanada\u2019da 2022, 2023, 2024 reel \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131yla -1.8%, -0.4% ve 0.2% olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Ayn\u0131 oranlar ABD i\u00e7in ise \u015f\u00f6yle:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -2.5%, 0.5%, 0.3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>ABD\u2019nin gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131las\u0131 (GSYH) 27 trilyon dolara yak\u0131nken Kanada\u2019da GSYH 3 trilyon dolar d\u00fczeyinde. Trump\u2019\u0131n Kanada\u2019y\u0131 \u201c51. Eyalet\u201d olarak istemesinin iktisadi ve jeopolitik sebepleri var. Kanada\u2019ya uygulanacak olan %25\u2019lik g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi ABD i\u00e7in ger\u00e7ek bir yapt\u0131r\u0131mdan \u00e7ok sopa g\u00f6stermekten ibaret. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"430\" src=\"https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/grafik-1-ve-2-1024x430.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3115\" srcset=\"https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/grafik-1-ve-2-1024x430.png 1024w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/grafik-1-ve-2-300x126.png 300w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/grafik-1-ve-2-768x322.png 768w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/grafik-1-ve-2-1536x645.png 1536w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/grafik-1-ve-2-2048x859.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Meksika ve Kanada i\u00e7in %25 g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerini 30 g\u00fcn belirli \u015fartlar ile ertelemesi bunu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"700\" src=\"https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-2-1024x700.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3154\" style=\"width:520px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-2-1024x700.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-2-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-2-768x525.jpg 768w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-2.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Grafik 2: ABD\u2019de \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n saatlik kazan\u00e7 ortalamas\u0131 (%)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>Trump ABD bankalar\u0131n\u0131n Kanada pazar\u0131na girmesini istiyor. Kanada finans kapitali ise buna ilk tepki olarak \u201cyerli mal\u0131\u201d olgusunu hat\u0131rlad\u0131. Ve kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergileri uygulayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Kanada Bankac\u0131lar Birli\u011fine g\u00f6re ABD merkezli kurulu\u015flar\u0131n Kanada\u2019daki aktif b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 133 milyar dolar d\u00fczeyinde. Yani Kanada GSYH\u2019sinin %4.43\u2019\u00fc fakat bu Trump ve ABD emperyalizminin \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 i\u00e7in belli ki yeterli bir d\u00fczey de\u011fil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kanada\u2019n\u0131n liberal eyalet ba\u015fkanlar\u0131 birdenbire ABD taraf\u0131ndan s\u0131rtlar\u0131ndan b\u0131\u00e7akland\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 belirterek i\u00e7 eyaletlerdeki ticaret engellerini kald\u0131rma karar\u0131 ald\u0131lar. ABD ile olan ticaretin azalt\u0131l\u0131p bunun yerine i\u00e7 pazar\u0131 geni\u015fleterek i\u00e7 ticaret hacmini art\u0131rmay\u0131 kararla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131lar. Bunun i\u00e7in Kanada\u2019da y\u0131llard\u0131r s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmekte olan \u201cye\u015fil politikalar\u201d terk edilmek zorunda. Kanada finans kapitali ABD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda direni\u015fi se\u00e7erse ABD\u2019le\u015fmek zorundad\u0131r. \u201cMake Canada Great\u201d ve \u201cCanada Not for Sale\u201d<a href=\"#_ftn1\" id=\"_ftnref1\">[1]<\/a> \u015fapkalar\u0131 \u015fimdiden tak\u0131lmaya ba\u015fland\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kanada Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Justin Trudeau\u2019nun istifas\u0131 sonras\u0131 yap\u0131lacak se\u00e7imlerde iktidara gelece\u011fi neredeyse kesin olan Muhafazak\u00e2r Parti genel ba\u015fkan\u0131 Pierre Poilievre, Kanada\u2019n\u0131n ABD\u2019nin 51. eyaleti olmas\u0131 \u00f6nerisini \u015fiddetle reddediyor. Ancak \u201cwoke k\u00fclt\u00fcr\u00fc\u201d olarak adland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sol\u201d e\u011filimlere kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor ve iktidardaki Liberal Parti\u2019yi \u201c\u00fctopik solculukla\u201d su\u00e7luyor. Pierre Poilievre y\u00fcksek ihtimalle, kendi \u201cdrill baby drill\u201d politikas\u0131yla, devasa b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte olan Kanada\u2019y\u0131 i\u00e7 s\u00f6m\u00fcrgele\u015ftirme politikas\u0131 izleyecek. G\u00fcvenlik konular\u0131nda ABD ile anla\u015fma ihtimali olsa da Arktik<a href=\"#_ftn2\" id=\"_ftnref2\">[2]<\/a> b\u00f6lgede bulunan deniz rotalar\u0131, yer alt\u0131 kaynaklar\u0131 ve madenler i\u00e7in ABD ile s\u00fcrekli bir gerilim siyaseti izleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump Kanada\u2019y\u0131 yer alt\u0131 kaynaklar\u0131 ve ABD i\u00e7in her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn kendini Bat\u0131 eyaletlerinde g\u00f6steren su sorununu \u00e7\u00f6zebilmek i\u00e7in de istiyor. Ayr\u0131ca Arktik b\u00f6lge ve \u00e7evresi (Gr\u00f6nland dahil) k\u0131talar aras\u0131 balistik f\u00fczeler i\u00e7in konum avantaj\u0131 sa\u011flamas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan jeopolitik \u00f6neme de sahip. &nbsp;Trump\u2019\u0131n ikinci kez se\u00e7ilmesi sonras\u0131 uygulamaya koydu\u011fu bu politikalar, ABD ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere d\u00fcnya emperyalist kapitalizminin krizinin bir nedeni de\u011fil bizzat krizin sonucu olarak varl\u0131k g\u00f6steren politikalard\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>D\u00fcnya ekonomik pastas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmedi\u011fi gibi bu pastan\u0131n payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 \u00fczerine rekabet art\u0131yor. Bu sadece bir ekonomik rekabet de\u011fil ayn\u0131 zamanda jeopolitik rekabettir. K\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte askeri harcamalar\u0131n art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bunun en bariz \u00f6rne\u011fi. Krizin bir noktada g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergileri ve yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7erek belirli b\u00f6lgelerde (G\u00fcney Pasifik ve Arktik \u00e7evresinde) s\u0131cak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara evrilmesi b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u00c7in: Bat\u0131 emperyalizminin en b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u00e2busu<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c7in ile ABD aras\u0131nda ekonomik, teknolojik ve askeri alanlarda rekabet \u00fcst d\u00fczeye ula\u015ft\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fcksek teknoloji alan\u0131nda ilerlemesi askeri stratejik rekabetin artmas\u0131n\u0131 da beraberinde getiriyor. Bunlar neticesinde \u00c7in, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ikinci ekonomisi haline geldi. Fakat ABD sadece \u00c7in kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fil di\u011fer t\u00fcm emperyalist \u00fclkeler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisi, k\u00fcresel finans merkezi ve askeri g\u00fc\u00e7 olma konumunu korumaya devam etmektedir. Zaten bu durum ancak bir emperyalist sava\u015f durumunda de\u011fi\u015febilir. \u015eimdilik iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki gerilim kendini g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergileri, ambargolar, fentanil ihracat\u0131, \u015firket yasaklar\u0131 ve \u00e7ip sava\u015flar\u0131 gibi alanlarda g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"702\" height=\"483\" src=\"https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Resim1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3125\" srcset=\"https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Resim1.png 702w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Resim1-300x206.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 702px) 100vw, 702px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Biden, Trump\u2019\u0131n \u00c7in politikalar\u0131n\u0131 katlayarak devam ettirdi. 2022&#8217;de ABD \u00e7ip yasas\u0131 Biden d\u00f6neminde y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girdi. Bu yasaya g\u00f6re, bir \u00e7ipin \u00fcretiminde ABD\u2019nin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcc\u00fck bir pay\u0131 bile varsa, onun \u00c7in\u2019e ihracat\u0131 ABD iznine ba\u011flan\u0131yor. Bu durum, \u00c7in\u2019in kendi \u00e7ip teknolojisini geli\u015ftirmesine itici g\u00fc\u00e7 oldu. Y\u00fcksek seviyeli \u00e7ipler \u00fcretebilen makinelerin \u00fcretimini sa\u011flayan Hollanda merkezli ASML \u015firketine, ABD taraf\u0131ndan bask\u0131 uygulanarak \u00c7in\u2019e teknoloji transferi konusunda k\u0131s\u0131tlama getirildi. Benzer \u015fekilde, bu k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar Tayvan merkezli \u00e7ip \u00fcreticisi TSMC \u00fczerinde de bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ABD, bir \u00e7ip fabrikas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmeyi hedefliyor. \u00c7in\u2019in y\u0131llard\u0131r itinayla s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc y\u00fcksek teknolojik \u00fcretim at\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n bir benzerini kendi i\u00e7inde uygulamak istiyor. K\u00fcresel emperyalist hegemonyas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilmesi ve \u00c7in\u2019in bu alanda kendisini yakalamas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nleyebilmesi i\u00e7in buna ihtiyac\u0131 var.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00d6te yandan, \u00c7in merkezli yapay zek\u00e2 \u015firketi Deepseek&#8217;in AI (yapay zeka) teknolojilerine yeni bir boyut katmas\u0131, Trump\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkanl\u0131k koltu\u011funa oturdu\u011fu hafta, OpenAI i\u00e7in 500 milyar dolarl\u0131k yat\u0131r\u0131ma izin verilmesinin konu\u015fuldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Deepseek, sadece do\u011fru zamanda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmakla kalmad\u0131; Trump yemin ederken arkalar\u0131nda dizilen bili\u015fim oligar\u015fisinin 1 trilyon dolara yak\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ya\u015famas\u0131na da neden oldu. \u00c7in\u2019in d\u00fcnya ticaret alanlar\u0131nda stratejik hamleler yapmas\u0131 ABD\u2019yi de hamle yapmaya zorluyor. D\u00fcnyadaki en \u00f6nemli ticaret rotalar\u0131nda \u00c7in var. Hong Kong merkezli CK Hutchison Holdings \u015firketi, Panama Kanal\u0131\u2019n\u0131n her iki ucundaki limanlar\u0131 i\u015fletme haklar\u0131na sahip. Hayfa Liman\u0131\u2019n\u0131 \u00c7in i\u015fletiyor. \u0130stanbul Ambarl\u0131 Liman\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ise do\u011frudan %65\u2019inin sahibi. Aden K\u00f6rfezini kontrol eden Cibuti\u2019de \u00c7in askeri \u00fcss\u00fc var. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz bo\u011faz\u0131n\u0131 kontrol eden Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri\u2019nin Halife Liman\u0131\u2019nda askeri tesisler kurmak i\u00e7in anla\u015fmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Sermaye ihrac\u0131n\u0131 her koldan ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan \u00c7in, Tayland k\u00f6rfezini ve kendi d\u0131\u015f ticareti i\u00e7in \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli olan G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya\u2019daki Malaka Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kontrol edecek bir bi\u00e7imde kurulmu\u015f bir gizli askeri \u00fcss\u00fc son g\u00fcnlerde ABD taraf\u0131ndan de\u015fifre edildi. T\u00fcm bu limanlar 50 \u00fclkeyi ve 105 liman\u0131 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/tracker\/china-overseas-ports\">kaps\u0131yor.<\/a> Ayr\u0131ca, deniza\u015f\u0131r\u0131 bir \u00fcss\u00fc olmayan \u00c7in, gerekti\u011finde bu limanlar\u0131 teknik olarak askeri bir deniz \u00fcss\u00fcne d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrebilecek \u015fekilde i\u015fletiyor. ABD i\u00e7in k\u00e2bus gibi bir senaryo.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"700\" src=\"https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-3-1024x700.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3161\" style=\"width:482px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-3-1024x700.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-3-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-3-768x525.jpg 768w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-3.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Grafik 3: Son 25 y\u0131lda \u00c7in ve ABD ihracat miktarlar\u0131 (milyar dolar)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>Grafik 3, 2008 depresyonu \u00f6ncesinde \u00c7in\u2019in toplam ihracat\u0131n\u0131n net bir \u015fekilde ABD\u2019nin gerisinde oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6steriyor. \u0130ki \u00fclkede de 2008 k\u00fcresel depresyonu ve 2020 pandemisi d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda s\u00fcrekli ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 mevcut. 2008-2020 aras\u0131nda ihracat ortalamalar\u0131 e\u015fit d\u00fczeyde seyretti. 2020\u2019den sonra \u00c7in\u2019in ayl\u0131k dalgalanmalar\u0131 zikzakl\u0131 da olsa ABD\u2019yi total ihracat kaleminde net bir \u015fekilde ge\u00e7ti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Grafik 4 ise, ABD\u2019nin s\u00fcrekli d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 verirken, \u00c7in\u2019in d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 verdi\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir. \u015eu anda, ABD\u2019nin ham petrol \u00fcretimi g\u00fcnl\u00fck 13.5 milyon varil ile \u00c7in\u2019in 4 milyon varillik \u00fcretiminin 3.4 kat\u0131 seviyesindedir. Yani, ABD net enerji ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 bir \u00fclke haline gelmesine ra\u011fmen, bu cari a\u00e7\u0131k devam etmektedir. \u00c7in ise, enerjide d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 konumundad\u0131r. Mamul mallar d\u00fczeyinde ise bu fark, \u00c7in lehine \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fckt\u00fcr. \u0130\u015fte, g\u00fcmr\u00fck sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n as\u0131l nedeni budur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"700\" src=\"https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-3-1024x700.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3161\" srcset=\"https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-3-1024x700.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-3-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-3-768x525.jpg 768w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-3.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"700\" src=\"https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/grafik-4-1024x700.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3162\" style=\"width:487px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/grafik-4-1024x700.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/grafik-4-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/grafik-4-768x525.jpg 768w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/grafik-4.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Grafik 4: Son 10 y\u0131lda \u00c7in ve ABD\u2019nin cari a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n GSYH\u2019ye oran\u0131<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>Fakat ABD\u2019yi \u00c7in \u00f6zelinde ilgilendiren \u00f6nemli bir ba\u015fka ticari konu ise nadir toprak elementleri meselesidir. &nbsp;Toplamda 17 metalik elementten meydana gelen bu elementler, cep telefonlar\u0131, sabit diskler, monit\u00f6rler, elektrikli ve hibrit otomobiller de dahil olmak \u00fczere neredeyse 200&#8217;den fazla teknolojik cihaz\u0131n \u00fcretiminde kullan\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00d6rne\u011fin ABD F-35 sava\u015f jetlerinin her biri, geli\u015fmi\u015f hedefleme sistemlerinin kullan\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 400 kilogram itriyum, terbiyum ve di\u011fer nadir toprak elementlerini i\u00e7eriyor. ABD Jeoloji Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Kurumu&#8217;na g\u00f6re \u00c7in, 44 milyon tonluk rezerviyle nadir toprak elementlerinin d\u00fcnyadaki en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fcreticisi konumunda. Toplam \u00fcretimin %70\u2019i \u00c7in\u2019de ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor. \u00c7in&#8217;in nadir toprak elementleri ihracat\u0131 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda %6 artarak 55 bin tona \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Nadir elementlerin d\u00fcnya \u00fczerinde en \u00e7ok bulundu\u011fu b\u00f6lgelerden biri de Gr\u00f6nland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Arktik b\u00f6lgeye sadece ABD\u2019nin ilgisi artm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. \u015ei Cinping, 2014\u2019te \u00c7in&#8217;in &#8220;b\u00fcy\u00fck kutup g\u00fcc\u00fc&#8221; olmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a s\u00f6yledi. 2018\u2019de ise kuzey kutbu politikas\u0131 olan \u201cArktik Politikas\u0131n\u0131\u201d d\u00fcnyaya duyurdu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c7in\u2019in Arktik politikas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fclke ise Rusya. \u00c7in sermayesi Rus \u015firketler ile \u00e7e\u015fitli anla\u015fmalar sayesinde Arktik b\u00f6lgeye ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131yor. Rus s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011falgaz \u00fcreticisi Novatek, \u00c7in Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131 ve \u00c7in \u0130hracat-\u0130thalat Bankas\u0131 ile milyarlarca dolarl\u0131k kredi anla\u015fmalar\u0131 imzal\u0131yor. \u00c7in\u2019in burada Rusya\u2019ya olan sermaye ihrac\u0131, ambargo alt\u0131ndaki Rusya i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi \u00c7in sermayesinin kutuplara ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck rol oynamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Uydu verileri, Arktik\u2019te bulunan buzullar\u0131n onar y\u0131ll\u0131k s\u00fcrelerde ortalama %2.7 oran\u0131nda azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve son otuz y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6nemde %10 d\u00fczeyinde azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koymakta. \u00c7in\u2019in kuzey b\u00f6lgesini g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na almas\u0131, ABD taraf\u0131ndan \u00e7evrelendi\u011fi \u015fu d\u00f6nemde stratejik a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00f6nemlidir. Azalan buzullar\u0131n olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131 ticaret rotalar\u0131n\u0131n egemenli\u011fi de ABD ve \u00c7in i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir rekabet alan\u0131. ABD\u2019nin Gr\u00f6nland gibi devasa bo\u015f bir araziyi ilhak etmek istemesinin alt\u0131nda bu nedenlerle ciddi jeopolitik riskler yat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>K\u0131tasal \u00f6l\u00e7ekte gerileyen Avrupa<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Birbirinden farkl\u0131 emperyalist \u00e7\u0131karlara sahip olan ve iki kez payla\u015f\u0131m sava\u015f\u0131na girerek bu sava\u015flardan \u00e7ok daha g\u00fc\u00e7s\u00fcz \u00e7\u0131kan Fransa ve Almanya \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde kurulan Avrupa Birli\u011fi (AB), asl\u0131nda bu emperyalist \u00fclkeler lehine uygun bir ortak pazar alan\u0131 sa\u011flayan bir entegrasyon projesidir. Ancak bu emperyalist proje, d\u00fcnya kapitalizminin krizi sonucunda par\u00e7alanma dinamikleri g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"700\" src=\"https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-5-1024x700.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3163\" srcset=\"https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-5-1024x700.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-5-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-5-768x525.jpg 768w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-5.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu entegrasyon, serbest ticaret b\u00f6lgesi, g\u00fcmr\u00fck birli\u011fi, ortak pazar, ekonomik ve parasal birlik ve tam ekonomik entegrasyon gibi s\u0131ral\u0131 a\u015famalardan ge\u00e7erek k\u0131tasal \u00f6l\u00e7ekte farkl\u0131 ulus devletleri alt\u0131nda tek bir iktisadi alan yaratt\u0131. Birlik, nihai hedefi olan tam siyasal birli\u011fe, ulus devlet ve kapitalizm aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eli\u015fkinin yan\u0131nda emperyalist sermayeler aras\u0131ndaki rekabetin de a\u015f\u0131lamayacak olmas\u0131ndan \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc ula\u015famayacakt\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla kapitalizm alt\u0131nda AB asla ABD\u2019le\u015femeyecektir. Avrupa Birle\u015fik Devletleri sadece kapitalizmin ve Avrupa burjuvazisinin ilgas\u0131yla m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. \u0130\u015fte AB emperyalizminin ABD ve \u00c7in gibi devler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda rekabette geri kalmas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda bu \u00e7eli\u015fki yat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"700\" src=\"https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-5-1024x700.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3163\" style=\"width:451px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-5-1024x700.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-5-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-5-768x525.jpg 768w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-5.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Grafik 5: ABD ve AB b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>Grafik 5, ABD ve AB\u2019nin pandemi ve sonras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131 olarak g\u00f6steriyor. Pandemi y\u0131l\u0131 olan 2020\u2019de ABD\u2019ye g\u00f6re AB\u2019nin \u00e7ok daha fazla k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Sonraki iki y\u0131lda toparlansa da son iki y\u0131lda ABD\u2019ye g\u00f6re s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6stermi\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Bu \u015f\u00fcphesiz AB \u00f6zelinde, ba\u015fka fakt\u00f6rlerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra \u00f6ncelikle Almanya\u2019n\u0131n enerji krizinin derinle\u015fmesinin bir etkisi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2022\u2019de Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019ya sald\u0131rmas\u0131 NATO\u2019nun Avrupa\u2019da h\u0131zl\u0131ca b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini beraberinde getirdi. Fakat ekonomik olarak Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 ba\u015fta Almanya olmak \u00fczerine bir enerji krizine soktu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"700\" src=\"https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-5-1024x700.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3163\" srcset=\"https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-5-1024x700.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-5-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-5-768x525.jpg 768w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-5.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"700\" src=\"https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-6-1024x700.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3164\" style=\"width:496px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-6-1024x700.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-6-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-6-768x525.jpg 768w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-6.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Grafik 6: Almanya ve Fransa\u2019n\u0131n GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>Grafik 6, Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 Almanya (bordo) ve Fransa\u2019n\u0131n (lacivert) ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmelerini \u00e7eyreklik (3 ayl\u0131k) bazda kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bir n\u00fckleer g\u00fc\u00e7 olan Fransa\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi d\u00fc\u015fse de k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmenin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Fakat ayn\u0131 \u015feyi Almanya i\u00e7in s\u00f6yleyemeyiz. Sava\u015f ba\u015flad\u0131ktan sonra b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi h\u0131zl\u0131ca duran Almanya\u2019n\u0131n son iki y\u0131ld\u0131r \u00fcst \u00fcste k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu enerji krizi, Almanya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00fcnya pazar\u0131nda elektrikli arabalar, yapay zek\u00e2 gibi alanlarda \u00c7in ve ABD ile rekabette zorlanmas\u0131n\u0131n nedenlerinden biri olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2022\u2019de Fransa h\u00fck\u00fcmeti bir yandan hanelere enerji tasarrufu \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131, di\u011fer yandan n\u00fckleer santral say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rma \u00e7abas\u0131na girdi. 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda geldi\u011fimizde Fransa\u2019n\u0131n toplam elektrik \u00fcretiminde n\u00fckleer enerjinin pay\u0131 %67 iken do\u011falgaz\u0131n pay\u0131 ise %3.2 oldu. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde Almanya\u2019n\u0131n toplam elektrik \u00fcretiminde n\u00fckleer enerjinin pay\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131r iken do\u011fal gaz\u0131n pay\u0131 %14 civar\u0131nda. R\u00fczgar ve g\u00fcne\u015f enerji santrallerinin art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla bu oran y\u0131llar i\u00e7inde azalmakta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"700\" src=\"https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-7-1024x700.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3165\" srcset=\"https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-7-1024x700.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-7-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-7-768x525.jpg 768w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-7.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"700\" src=\"https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-7-1024x700.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3165\" style=\"width:458px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-7-1024x700.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-7-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-7-768x525.jpg 768w, https:\/\/trockist.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Grafik-7.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Grafik 7: 2008 sonras\u0131 Fransa ve Almanya\u2019n\u0131n do\u011falgaz ithalat\u0131<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>Fransa (lacivert) ve Almanya\u2019n\u0131n (bordo) enerji politikalar\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131m, Rusya kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki konumlar\u0131n\u0131 da farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Almanya\u2019n\u0131n do\u011falgaz ithalat\u0131nda, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna hamlelerinin etkili oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Rusya h\u00fck\u00fcmeti taraf\u0131ndan desteklenen ve eski Almanya \u015eans\u00f6lyesi Gerhard Schr\u00f6der ba\u015fbakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki Almanya h\u00fck\u00fcmeti taraf\u0131ndan uzla\u015fmaya var\u0131lan Kuzey Ak\u0131m 1 ve 2 projelerinin 2012 sonras\u0131 hayata ge\u00e7mesiyle, Almanya\u2019n\u0131n do\u011falgaz ithalat\u0131nda ciddi bir art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2022 Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131 ile birlikte ise Almanya\u2019n\u0131n do\u011falgaz ithalat\u0131n\u0131n ciddi oranda azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zlemleniyor. Bu nedenle, son y\u0131llarda Almanya\u2019n\u0131n LNG (s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz) ithalat\u0131nda (\u00f6zellikle ABD\u2019den) art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Fransa\u2019n\u0131n ise bu de\u011fi\u015fimlerden pek etkilenmedi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Almanya\u2019n\u0131n enerjide Rusya\u2019ya olan ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n Schr\u00f6der ba\u015fbakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki politikalar oldu\u011fu \u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131k. \u0130ktidar\u0131nda kuzey ak\u0131m projelerine, ba\u011flant\u0131da oldu\u011fu bir\u00e7ok Alman enerji \u015firketini de ortak etti. Ayr\u0131ca projenin borular\u0131n\u0131 Siemens \u015firketi \u00fcretiyor. T\u00fcm bu enerji anla\u015fmalar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Schr\u00f6der, Angela Merkel\u2019in iktidara gelmesiyle Gazprom\u2019un y\u00f6netim kuruluna se\u00e7ildi. Ayr\u0131ca Rusya merkezli bir petrol ve do\u011falgaz \u015firketi olan Rosnef\u2019te Denetleme Kurulu Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi g\u00f6revlerde bulundu. T\u00fcm bu ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k politikas\u0131, Almanya\u2019da Sosyal Demokratlar ve Ye\u015filler Partisi koalisyonlar\u0131 d\u00f6neminde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi i\u00e7in, CDU ya da AFD gibi daha sa\u011f partilerin bu partilerden taban kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump\u2019\u0131n aksine k\u0131ta Avrupas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015fat g\u00fc\u00e7leri Fransa ve Almanya, Rus yay\u0131lmac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 teyakkuzda. NATO son y\u0131llarda geni\u015flese de AB ile birlikte da\u011f\u0131lma dinamikleri art\u0131yor. \u00d6zellikle Almanya ve Fransa\u2019da yap\u0131lacak se\u00e7imlerle kurulacak yeni h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sa\u011f e\u011filimin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi da\u011f\u0131lma dinamiklerini art\u0131racakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu hafta \u0130spanya\u2019da Vox \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde Trump\u2019a destek i\u00e7in Avrupa a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sa\u011f liderler bulu\u015fmas\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz \u00fczere ya da Elon Musk\u2019\u0131n Almanya\u2019da AfD\u2019nin toplant\u0131s\u0131na kat\u0131lmas\u0131na bakarak bile bir sa\u011f uluslararas\u0131 hareket in\u015fa edildi\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Trump iktidar\u0131 t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada bu ak\u0131mlar\u0131n fonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 kolayla\u015ft\u0131racakt\u0131r. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/2024\/07\/02\/kapitalizm-onemli-bir-esikte\/\">Kapitalizm \u00f6nemli bir e\u015fikte<\/a>\u201d yaz\u0131mda \u015funu belirtmi\u015ftim: \u201c<em>Emperyalist sermaye, t\u0131kanmay\u0131 a\u015famad\u0131k\u00e7a b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sermaye y\u0131k\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in d\u00fcnyan\u0131n yeniden payla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131na g\u00fcn ge\u00e7tik\u00e7e daha te\u015fne haline geliyor. Fakat her iki payla\u015f\u0131m sava\u015f\u0131 sonunda inisiyatifi kaybetmesini emperyalist burjuvazi unutmu\u015f de\u011fil. Emperyalizmin, bu ihtimali denklem d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakacak yollar\u0131 aramakta oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek de yanl\u0131\u015f olmaz. Bunun i\u00e7in d\u00fcnya \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finde i\u015f\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131n\u0131n atomizasyonu hedeflenecektir. \u00d6zellikle rejimlerin k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte Bonapartistle\u015fmesi daha korporatist iktisadi yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirecektir. B\u00f6ylece k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck burjuva radikalizmi artt\u0131k\u00e7a emperyalist \u00fclkelerin korporatizme kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rebiliriz.\u201d&nbsp;<\/em>Y\u00fckselen a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sa\u011f\u0131n temellendi\u011fi yer tam olarak buras\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ama bu kitlesel seferberliklerin grevlerin ve m\u00fccadelelerin geri \u00e7ekilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelmek \u015f\u00f6yle dursun sarka\u00e7 etkisiyle d\u00fcnya i\u015f\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131n\u0131n kendi \u00f6nderli\u011finin in\u015fas\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zland\u0131racak alt \u00fcst olu\u015flara tan\u0131k olabiliriz. Bu ayn\u0131 zamanda, yeni g\u00f6revleri \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcze koyacak yeni sava\u015flar ve devrimler \u00e7a\u011f\u0131na girdi\u011fimizin de bir i\u015fareti olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmelidir. ABD\u2019de, Fransa\u2019da, \u0130spanya\u2019da, Afrika ve G\u00fcney Asya\u2019da ya da Latin Amerika\u2019da s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclen kitlesel m\u00fccadeleler bize bir \u015feyler anlatmal\u0131. \u0130lk d\u00f6neminde tarihinin en b\u00fcy\u00fck ayaklanmalar\u0131ndan birine sahne olan ABD\u2019de Trump\u2019\u0131 ilk d\u00f6neminden daha sars\u0131c\u0131 seferberlikler bekliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>En b\u00fcy\u00fck tehlike b\u00f6ylesi bir d\u00f6neme k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kadrolara ve devrimci bir programa sahip olmayan kitlesel partilerle girmektir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc olas\u0131 bir k\u00fcresel payla\u015f\u0131m sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131 durdurabilecek ve toplumun d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclmesi sa\u011flayabilecek yeg\u00e2ne g\u00fc\u00e7 i\u015f\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131 olmaya devam etmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu kapsamda son s\u00f6z\u00fc Tro\u00e7ki\u2019ye verelim. Zaman\u0131m\u0131zda Marksizm makalesinde yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131 son sat\u0131rlar g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli ve kapitalizmin sava\u015flar ve devrimler \u00e7a\u011f\u0131nda da ge\u00e7erli olmaya devam edecek:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cD\u00fcnyan\u0131n yeniden b\u00f6l\u00fcnmesi i\u00e7in verilen azg\u0131n ve \u00fcmitsiz m\u00fccadele, kar\u015f\u0131 konulmaz bir bi\u00e7imde kapitalist sistemin \u00f6l\u00fcmc\u00fcl krizinden kaynaklanmaktad\u0131r. K\u0131smi reformlar\u0131n ve yamalar\u0131n hi\u00e7bir faydas\u0131 olmayacakt\u0131r. Tarihsel geli\u015fim, sadece kitlelerin do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahalesinin gerici engelleri s\u00fcp\u00fcrebilece\u011fi ve yeni bir rejimin temellerini atabilece\u011fi belirleyici basamaklardan birine gelmi\u015f bulunuyor. \u00dcretim ara\u00e7lar\u0131nda \u00f6zel m\u00fclkiyetin kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, \u00f6nce ulusal son olarak da d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda planl\u0131 bir ekonomi i\u00e7in, yani mant\u0131\u011f\u0131n insan ili\u015fkileri alan\u0131na girmesi i\u00e7in ilk \u00f6n gerekliliktir. Sosyalist devrim bir kez ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00fclkeden \u00fclkeye, bug\u00fcn fa\u015fizmin yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lamayacak kadar daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir g\u00fc\u00e7le yay\u0131lacakt\u0131r. \u0130leri uluslar\u0131n yard\u0131m\u0131 ve \u00f6rnek olmas\u0131 ile, geri uluslar da sosyalizmin ana ak\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7ekilecektir. Adamak\u0131ll\u0131 \u00e7\u00fcr\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f g\u00fcmr\u00fck kap\u0131lar\u0131 y\u0131k\u0131lacakt\u0131r. Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 ve t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyay\u0131 ikiye ay\u0131ran \u00e7eli\u015fkiler, Avrupa\u2019da oldu\u011fu gibi d\u00fcnyan\u0131n t\u00fcm di\u011fer par\u00e7alar\u0131nda da do\u011fal ve bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmlerini, Birle\u015fik Sosyalist Devletler \u00e7at\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda bulacaklard\u0131r. \u00d6zg\u00fcrle\u015fmi\u015f insanl\u0131k, kendi doruklar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref1\" id=\"_ftn1\">[1]<\/a> \u201cKanada\u2019y\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck yap\u201d, \u201cKanada Sat\u0131l\u0131k de\u011fil\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref2\" id=\"_ftn2\">[2]<\/a> Di\u011fer ad\u0131yla Arktika: Kuzey Kutup Dairesi&#8217;nin \u00fcst\u00fcnde kalan b\u00f6lge<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kapitalizm ciddi bir \u00e7oklu kriz i\u00e7inde ve insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 barbarl\u0131\u011fa, gezegenimizi ise \u00f6l\u00fcme s\u00fcr\u00fckl\u00fcyor. Cehennemi vaat etmek d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda verebilece\u011fi hi\u00e7bir \u015feyi olmayan bu k\u00fcresel jeopolitik sistem, i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu \u00e7oklu kriz ortam\u0131nda, ba\u015fat emperyalist g\u00fc\u00e7ler eliyle ekonomi politik arenada yeni bir sermaye birikim modeli ve k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte yeni bir politik sistem olu\u015fturmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu yeni d\u00f6nemin ekonomi [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":3112,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[703,634],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3150","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi-politik","category-emperyalizm"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3150","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3150"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3150\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3172,"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3150\/revisions\/3172"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3112"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3150"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3150"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3150"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}