{"id":294,"date":"2019-01-27T20:56:17","date_gmt":"2019-01-27T17:56:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/94.237.85.66\/?p=294"},"modified":"2023-01-03T23:08:50","modified_gmt":"2023-01-03T20:08:50","slug":"iranda-rejim-ve-muhalefet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/2019\/01\/27\/iranda-rejim-ve-muhalefet\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130ran\u2019da rejim ve muhalefet"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u201cBir g\u00fcn<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

gelece\u011fim ve bir haber getirece\u011fim.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Damarlara \u0131\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6kece\u011fim.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ve seslenece\u011fim: Hey, sepetleriniz uykuyla dolu<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Elma getirdim, g\u00fcne\u015fin k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 elmas\u0131n\u0131.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sohrab Sepehri<\/strong>, Ye\u015fil\u2019in Hacmi<\/em>(1)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ortado\u011fu\u2019da olup bitenleri anlaman\u0131n yolunun \u0130ran\u2019dan ge\u00e7ti\u011fini s\u00f6ylemek herhalde abart\u0131l\u0131 bir de\u011ferlendirme olmayacakt\u0131r. Zira b\u00f6lgenin siyasi tarihinde \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n do\u011frudan veya dolayl\u0131 olarak i\u00e7inde bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir geli\u015fme hemen hemen yok gibidir. \u015eah d\u00f6neminde ABD\u2019nin en sad\u0131k m\u00fcttefiki olan \u0130ran yerine, emperyalizme meydan okuma retori\u011fiyle var olan, Filistinlileri destekleyen, kendini \u0130slam\u2019\u0131n koruyucusu\/temsilcisi addeden, k\u0131saca b\u00f6lgede kendi siyasi-ideolojik \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na g\u00f6re rol almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan yeni bir \u0130ran gelmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1979 \u0130ran \u0130slam Devrimi\u2019nde muhalif bir gelene\u011fe sahip \u0130ran s\u0131n\u0131f hareketinin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa u\u011framas\u0131, ard\u0131ndan iktidara gelen \u0130slamc\u0131 kanat taraf\u0131ndan fiziksel ve siyasi a\u00e7\u0131lardan par\u00e7alanmas\u0131, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc \u201chareketsizli\u011fin\u201d ya da zaman zaman patlamal\u0131 hareketlerin politik arka plan\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturur. \u0130ran \u0130slam Devrimi\u2019nin tahlili bu yaz\u0131n\u0131n konusu de\u011fildir, fakat bug\u00fcn \u0130ran\u2019da s\u0131n\u0131flar m\u00fccadelesini analiz edebilmek i\u00e7in ondan s\u00f6z etmek, onun \u0130ran toplumunda yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ruh halinden bahsetmek durumunday\u0131z. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu politik-psikolojiyi belki de en iyi, Abbas Kiarostami\u2019nin Kiraz\u2019\u0131n Tad\u0131<\/em> adl\u0131 filmindeki hikaye anlat\u0131r. Kiraz\u0131n Tad\u0131<\/em> devrimin bir ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131n zihninde dini y\u0131kan ve yeniden yaratan yan\u0131n\u0131 bireyin varolu\u015fsal sanc\u0131lar\u0131yla birlikte verir. Filmin ba\u015f karakteri Bedii ad\u0131nda biridir, intihar etmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr ve uygun bir mezar yeri arayarak \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc haz\u0131rlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Mezar\u0131n\u0131 kazm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Arad\u0131\u011f\u0131 tek \u015fey, Tahran\u2019da \u00fczerine toprak atacak birini bulmakt\u0131r. Arabas\u0131yla \u00f6nce Tahran\u2019da, sonra mezar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7evresinde dola\u015f\u0131r, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir para kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu i\u015fi \u00fcstlenecek birini arar. Fakat \u00e7o\u011fu kimse bunu dini gerek\u00e7elerden \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc kabul etmez. Bedii, \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc bir yazg\u0131y\u0131, bir tasar\u0131y\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirir gibi ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr, devrimin \u201cu\u011framad\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d bir \u00fclkede anlam ta\u015f\u0131yabilecek tek eylemdir bu ona g\u00f6re. Devrim bir anlam, bir kutsall\u0131k ve ya\u015fam\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirme iddias\u0131yd\u0131 \u0130ranl\u0131lar i\u00e7in. Fakat devrimin ezilenler aleyhinde yenilgisi, gelecekleri ellerinden al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f umutsuz bir ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131 yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu y\u00fczden Bedii\u2019nin hikayesinde v\u00fccut bulan bu mizansen, ya\u015fam\u0131nda kendi kendini tamamlayamayan ve \u00f6l\u00fcmde, kendi \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n kendisinden saklayamayaca\u011f\u0131, toplumun elinden alamayaca\u011f\u0131, \u00f6rg\u00fctledi\u011fine g\u00f6re molla iktidar\u0131n\u0131n da reddedemeyece\u011fi \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde tamamlanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan insan\u0131n var olma sorunsal\u0131n\u0131 ifade eder. Bedii\u2019nin \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6rg\u00fctlemesi, ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermenin, yazg\u0131s\u0131na hakim oldu\u011funun, ya\u015fam\u0131na bir anlam veremedi\u011fi i\u00e7in \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc in\u015fa etti\u011finin bir g\u00f6stergesi olmu\u015ftur bu filmde. T\u0131pk\u0131 bir ba\u015fka \u0130ranl\u0131 Sad\u0131k Hidayet\u2019in benzer bir psikolojiyi anlatan roman\u0131 K\u00f6r Bayku\u015f\u2019<\/em>ta ge\u00e7en \u201c\u00d6l\u00fcm\u00fcn kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda mezhebin, iman\u0131n, itikad\u0131n ne kadar gev\u015fek ve \u00e7ocuk\u00e7a oldu\u011funu hissediyordum\u201d c\u00fcmlesinde \u00f6zetledi\u011fi gibi\u2026(2)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ne var ki, dini h\u00fck\u00fcmlerin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir bi\u00e7imde i\u015fledi\u011fi, dikte edildi\u011fi bir toplumda yarat\u0131lan biat duygusu kal\u0131c\u0131 ya da i\u00e7selle\u015fmi\u015f de\u011fildir. Emperyalist devletlerin yayg\u0131n propagandas\u0131 olarak kullan\u0131lan \u201c\u00f6c\u00fc toplumu\u201d s\u00f6ylemi, benzer \u015fekilde Arap halklar i\u00e7in de yap\u0131l\u0131yordu. Y\u00fczy\u0131ll\u0131k uykuya yatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenen Arap halklar bu s\u00f6ylemin i\u00e7i bo\u015f ve anlams\u0131z oldu\u011funu otuz y\u0131ll\u0131k diktat\u00f6rleri ala\u015fa\u011f\u0131 ederek kan\u0131tlad\u0131. Bug\u00fcn ise, \u0130ran\u2019a ili\u015fkin yayg\u0131n tart\u0131\u015fma elbette, kaderinin Arap devrimlerinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc r\u00fczg\u00e2rdan etkilenip etkilenmeyece\u011fidir. 2009 Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imlerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir isyan dalgas\u0131 ile g\u00fcndeme gelen \u0130ran, bu dalgadan \u015fimdilik somut bir bi\u00e7imde etkilenmi\u015fe benzemiyor. Ger\u00e7ekten de durum b\u00f6yle mi? Bu yaz\u0131da, bu soru ba\u011flam\u0131nda \u00fcretilecek cevaplarla ilerlemeyi planl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Siyasi Krizler<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arap Devrimleri, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 hem i\u00e7 politikada hem de d\u0131\u015f politikada ciddi sorunlarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya getirmi\u015ftir. Bu sorunlar, i\u00e7 politikada \u201c\u00fclkede Arap halk hareketlerinden etkilenecek ciddi bir kitlenin\u201d bulunmas\u0131, d\u0131\u015f politikada ise, Ortado\u011fu\u2019da yeni olu\u015fmakta olan devlet rejimlerinin \u0130ran halk\u0131 nezdinde rejimin me\u015fruiyetini sorgulatacak nitelikte olmas\u0131d\u0131r. D\u0131\u015f \u00e7eperinde Suriye\u2019de ya\u015fanan halk ayaklanmas\u0131, Libya, Tunus, M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da devrilen rejimler \u0130ran rejimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir tehdit olu\u015fturmakta, i\u00e7 siyasetinde ya\u015fanan rejim krizleri ve ekonomik yolsuzluk skandallar\u0131 rejimi zora sokmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hat\u0131rlanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz bahar aylar\u0131ndan bu yana \u0130ran siyasetinde en \u00e7ok tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lan konulardan biri Rehber Ayetullah Hamaney ile Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Mahmud Ahmedinejad aras\u0131ndaki s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmedir. May\u0131s ay\u0131nda Ahmedinejad\u2019\u0131n Hamaney\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karak \u0130stihbarat Bakan\u0131 Heydar Moslehi\u2019yi g\u00f6revden almakta \u0131srar etmesiyle birlikte anla\u015fmazl\u0131k su y\u00fcz\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ard\u0131ndan, Hamaney\u2019in destek\u00e7isi din adamlar\u0131n\u0131n, Ahmedinejad\u2019a ve onun yak\u0131n \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma arkada\u015f\u0131 Esfendiar Rahim Mashaei\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 sert bir muhalefet g\u00f6stermeleri sonucu gerginlik iyice artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu kesim, Ahmedinejad\u2019\u0131 ve Mashaei\u2019yi, Hamaney\u2019in otoritesini sarsmak ve din adamlar\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran rejimindeki etkilerini azaltmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmakla su\u00e7lamaya devam etmektedir. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda patlak veren \u0130ran tarihinin en b\u00fcy\u00fck doland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k skandal\u0131 da, Muhafazak\u00e2rlar denilen Rehber\u2019in destekledi\u011fi kesim ile Ahmedinejad grubu aras\u0131ndaki bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya yeni bir boyut eklemi\u015ftir. Zira \u0130ran\u2019da bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u00f6zellikle y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndan elde etti\u011fi geliri usuls\u00fcz \u015fekilde harcad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve yolsuzluklar yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde birtak\u0131m s\u00f6ylentiler ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130ran\u2019daki finansal doland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k skandal\u0131, gelecek sene yap\u0131lacak olan meclis se\u00e7imlerinin arifesinde siyasi hizipler aras\u0131ndaki tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 daha da alevlendirmi\u015ftir. \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililerin \u0130ran tarihinin en b\u00fcy\u00fck soygunu olarak niteledikleri banka skandal\u0131, bu i\u015fin sorumlusu olmakla su\u00e7lanan Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Ahmedinejad\u2019\u0131n zor durumda kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 2,6 milyar dolarl\u0131k bankac\u0131l\u0131k skandal\u0131 nedeniyle, \u0130ran y\u00f6netimi i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bir s\u00fcrecin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. \u00d6zellikle de \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki Mart ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen meclis se\u00e7imlerinin yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131n\u0131rsa, Muhafazak\u00e2rlar taraf\u0131ndan h\u00fck\u00fcmetin sorumlu tutuldu\u011fu bu skandal\u0131n Ahmedinejad\u2019\u0131n arkas\u0131ndaki deste\u011fi azaltaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. 2009 Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imleri sonras\u0131nda Ye\u015fil Hareket\u2019in h\u00fck\u00fcmet g\u00fc\u00e7leri taraf\u0131ndan \u015fiddetle bast\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve ba\u015fl\u0131ca \u00f6nderlerinin siyaset haklar\u0131n\u0131n ellerinden al\u0131nmas\u0131yla birlikte, yakla\u015fan Meclis se\u00e7imlerinde m\u00fccadelenin \u201c\u0130lkeciler\u201d (Usulgera<\/em>) ile Ahmedinejad\u2019\u0131 liderleri olarak g\u00f6ren \u201c\u00dc\u00e7 Tir S\u00f6ylemi\u201d (Goftemane Sevvom Tir<\/em>) grubu aras\u0131nda ge\u00e7ece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmektedir. Asl\u0131nda her iki grup da Velayet-i Fakih<\/em> (f\u0131k\u0131h bilgininin egemenli\u011fi) rejimine ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile bilinmektedir.(3)<\/strong> Velayet-i Fakih\u2019i ve asl\u0131nda rejimi anlamak i\u00e7in \u00f6ncelikle 1979 \u0130ran \u0130slam Devrimi\u2019nden bahsetmemiz gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130ran \u0130slam Devrimi ve Solun Yenilgisi<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Devrimden \u00f6nceki yirmi y\u0131la \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ekonomik, toplumsal, k\u00fclt\u00fcrel ve siyasal yap\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fim ve d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmler damgas\u0131n\u0131 vurmu\u015ftur. 1963\u2019te Muhammed R\u0131za \u015eah Pehlevi\u2019nin \u201dBeyaz Devrim\u201d ad\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi iddial\u0131 reform program\u0131 (toprak reformu, kad\u0131nlara y\u00f6nelik haklar\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, sanayile\u015fmenin h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131) s\u0131n\u0131flar aras\u0131 u\u00e7urumun geni\u015flemesini sa\u011flad\u0131. \u00d6zellikle bu program kapsam\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen toprak reformu b\u00fcy\u00fck toprak sahiplerinin eski m\u00fclkiyet yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131rm\u0131\u015f, k\u0131rsal kesimden g\u00f6\u00e7\u00fc yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Kentlerde meydana gelen petrolden beslenen rantiyeci ekonomi yeni bir zenginlik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fc olmu\u015ftur. \u00d6yle ki 1973\u2019te petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 4 kat artmas\u0131 devletin y\u0131ll\u0131k 5 milyar dolarl\u0131k gelirini yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyara \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.(4)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1960\u2019l\u0131 ve 1970\u2019li y\u0131llarda petrol sayesinde zenginle\u015fmi\u015f, gitgide toplumdan kopan asalak bir yeni \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131f ve reformlarla g\u00fc\u00e7lenen \u015eah rejimi s\u00f6z konusudur. \u00d6te yandan Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131, ABD y\u00f6netiminin \u015eah rejimine olan maddi deste\u011fini de art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Toplumsal destekten yoksun bir y\u00f6netim, ayn\u0131 zamanda her t\u00fcrl\u00fc muhalefeti bast\u0131ran bir yap\u0131ya sahiptir. 1970\u2019li y\u0131llar\u0131n sonunda d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda ya\u015fanan petrol krizi \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 da etkilemi\u015ftir. \u0130ktisadi dar bo\u011fazdan do\u011frudan do\u011fruya etkilenen i\u015f\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131 ve orta s\u0131n\u0131ftan \u00e7e\u015fitli kesimlerin artan ho\u015fnutsuzlu\u011fu, k\u00fcresel kapitalizme entegrasyondan olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkilenen geleneksel \u00fcretici s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131n var olma m\u00fccadelesi, a\u011f\u0131r hasta olan ve \u00fclkenin toplumsal ger\u00e7ekli\u011fiyle ilgisini kesen \u015eah\u2019\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131r. Art\u0131k me\u015fru kabul edilmeyen rejim kitleler taraf\u0131ndan reddedilmeye ba\u015flar, muhalefet bask\u0131lar\u0131n, \u00f6l\u00fcm olaylar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131yla \u015fiddetlenen sokak hareketlerinde kendini g\u00f6sterir ve y\u00f6netim hareketi bast\u0131ramaz hale gelir. Devrim, \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin biraraya gelmesiyle olu\u015fan geni\u015f bir halk hareketiyle ger\u00e7ekle\u015fse de, devrimin itici g\u00fcc\u00fc 1978\u2019in son aylar\u0131nda petrol end\u00fcstrisinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen i\u015f\u00e7i grevleri olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1979\u2019da \u015eah\u2019\u0131n devrilmesi ile \u00fclkede \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck\u00e7\u00fc bir alan a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131r, k\u00f6yl\u00fcler topraklara el koyar, ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z sendikalar ve i\u015f\u00e7i konseyleri (\u015furalar)<\/em> olu\u015fur, kad\u0131nlar\u0131n \u00f6rg\u00fctl\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lenir. Fakat iktidarda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir bo\u015fluk s\u00f6z konusudur. O d\u00f6nem Paris\u2019te s\u00fcrg\u00fcnde olan Humeyni, \u0130ran sol hareketi nezdinde de \u201cayr\u0131 duran g\u00fc\u00e7lerin uzla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131s\u0131\u201d olarak nitelenen bir liderdir ve \u0130ran\u2019a d\u00f6nerek, ge\u00e7ici h\u00fck\u00fcmetin kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flar.(5)<\/strong> Bu s\u0131rada \u0130ran Solu kafa kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7indedir. Kom\u00fcnist Tudeh Partisi Humeyni rejimine ko\u015fulsuz destek verdi\u011fini s\u00f6yler ve Fedailer grubu ile birlikte Humeyni\u2019yi \u201cantiemperyalist\u201d burjuvazinin temsilcisi olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fcklerini, Stalinist a\u015famal\u0131 devrim anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc ulusal burjuvazinin demokratik devrimin g\u00f6revlerini yerine getirmesini beklemek gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6ylerler. Bu anlay\u0131\u015fa g\u00f6re Sol ancak ikinci, yani sosyalist a\u015famada g\u00f6rev almal\u0131d\u0131r, bu d\u00f6nemde yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken SSCB\u2019dekine benzer bir bi\u00e7imde devlet kapitalizminin in\u015fas\u0131 ve Sovyet blo\u011funa dahil olarak \u201dkapitalist olmayan\u201d bir siyaset izlemek olmal\u0131d\u0131r, ancak bu \u015fekilde sosyalist a\u015famaya ge\u00e7mek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olacakt\u0131r. Bir yandan solun i\u00e7inde yayg\u0131n olan gerilla stratejisi de s\u0131n\u0131f m\u00fccadelesinin ikinci plana at\u0131lmas\u0131na neden olur, \u015furalara y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131lara kar\u015f\u0131 sol \u00f6rg\u00fctler hi\u00e7bir \u015fey yapmaz. 1980\u2019de Irak i\u015fgali ile sol gruplar\u0131n imhas\u0131 i\u00e7in uygun bir zemin olu\u015fur. Sava\u015f \u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131rtkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclkedeki muhaliflere y\u00f6nelik pogroma d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr. Ba\u015flat\u0131lan idam kampanyas\u0131nda 1981-1985 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda 12.000 muhalif idam edilir ya da \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda katledilir. Geri kalanlarsa 1988\u2019de idam edilir. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, Stalinist \u201ca\u015famal\u0131 devrim\u201d anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131, sosyalist \u00f6nderliklerin yalpalamalar\u0131 ve bir dizi etkenin sonucu \u0130ran Devrimi \u0130slamc\u0131 \u00f6nderliklerin iktidar\u0131yla sonu\u00e7lan\u0131r. Ve ard\u0131ndan ge\u00e7en y\u0131llar s\u00fcrecinde de \u0130ran Solu, mollalar\u0131n bu kar\u015f\u0131devrimi taraf\u0131ndan fiziksel olarak da yok edilir, \u00f6rg\u00fctleri atomize olur.(6)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rejimin Yap\u0131s\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Devrimden sonra rejim kendisini Bonapartist bir bi\u00e7imde \u00f6rg\u00fctler. S\u0131n\u0131flar \u00fcst\u00fc tutumu, ezilenden yana ve \u201csosyal adalet\u201d da\u011f\u0131t\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 misyonuyla Humeyni rejimin koruyucusu ve anayasal teokrat stat\u00fcs\u00fcyle Bonapart\u0131\u2019d\u0131r. Marx\u2019\u0131n On Sekiz Brumaire\u2019<\/em>de belirtti\u011fi gibi, karizmatik bir liderin farkl\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131n hakemi olarak oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131 rol ve devletin, burjuvazi ve i\u015f\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131 aras\u0131nda dengeleyici oldu\u011fu, istikrars\u0131z nitelikli, devletin kendini egemen s\u0131n\u0131f olarak \u00f6rg\u00fctledi\u011fi bir rejimdir Bonapartizm.(7)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Humeyni rejimi, kapitalizmin e\u015fitsiz ve bile\u015fik geli\u015fim teorisi gere\u011fince sermayenin \u201cmodern\u201d gerekliliklerini \u201cgeleneksel\u201d \u00f6zelliklerle birle\u015ftirebilmi\u015ftir. \u0130slam, burada pop\u00fclizmin \u00f6zel bir bi\u00e7imi olup, kitle k\u00fclt\u00fcr\u00fcndeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc de\u011ferlerin sembol\u00fcd\u00fcr. Humeyni, t\u00fcccarlar\u0131 da dahil etti\u011fi yoksul halk\u0131 (\u00fcmmet anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131na paralel olarak) sava\u015f y\u0131llar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir bi\u00e7imde seferber eder. Onun \u015fu s\u00f6zleri toplu idamlardan geriye kalan kitleleri birarada tutmaya yetecektir: \u201c(Devrim zaman\u0131nda yap\u0131lan) b\u00fct\u00fcn fedakarl\u0131klar\u0131n daha ucuz karpuz alabilmek i\u00e7in oldu\u011funa; gen\u00e7 insanlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 daha ucuz konutlar i\u00e7in feda etti\u011fimize; onurlu bir insan\u0131n inanabilece\u011fini kabul etmem m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir\u2026 \u0130ran\u2019da kitleler, d\u00fcnyevi meseleler i\u00e7in de\u011fil; sadece Tanr\u0131 i\u00e7in sava\u015ft\u0131lar.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Humeyni \u00f6nderlik stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc ve rejimin bekas\u0131n\u0131 ideolojik a\u00e7\u0131dan korumak ve me\u015fru k\u0131lmak i\u00e7in Rehberlik kurumunu olu\u015fturur. Asli g\u00f6revi rejimin i\u00e7indeki krizleri \u00e7\u00f6zmek olan ve ba\u015f\u0131nda devrimin koruyucusu olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan Rehber\u2019in bulundu\u011fu bu kurum denetlenemez, \u00f6zerktir. Anla\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, Rehberlik stat\u00fcs\u00fc basit\u00e7e bir t\u00fcr din bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011fildir; \u0130ran\u2019da kapitalizmin in\u015fas\u0131nda, devlet sermayesiyle burjuvazinin yarat\u0131lmas\u0131nda ve silahl\u0131 ayg\u0131tlar\u0131n denetiminde b\u00fcy\u00fck rol oynar. Dengelerin korunmas\u0131nda ekonomik ve politik etkileri az\u0131msanamayacak derecede b\u00fcy\u00fckt\u00fcr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00fcm s\u0131n\u0131f \u00f6rg\u00fctlerinin imhas\u0131, \u0130ran Solu\u2019nun yenilgisi ve \u0130slamc\u0131 retori\u011fin toplumu bir arada tutmaya yarayan tutkals\u0131 i\u015flevi sayesinde rejimin yap\u0131s\u0131na i\u00e7kin olarak totalitarizm me\u015frula\u015f\u0131r\/yerle\u015fikle\u015fir. Ancak bu \u201cyekpare\u201d durum, \u00e7eli\u015fkilerle doludur, rejim s\u00fcrekli yeni krizlere gebedir. 1989\u2019da Humeyni\u2019nin \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne kadar yekpare bir blok olan y\u00f6netici elit, Ha\u015fimi Rafsancani\u2019nin cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 olmas\u0131ndan sonra Muhafazakarlar ve Pragmatistler (Reformcular, Ye\u015filler) olarak ikiye b\u00f6l\u00fcn\u00fcr. Bu b\u00f6l\u00fcnmenin nedeni, 1989 Irak Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019nda olu\u015fan karaborsa ve yolsuzluklar sayesinde baz\u0131 b\u00fcrokratlar\u0131n servet biriktirmi\u015f olmalar\u0131, baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131nsa bundan yeterli pay\u0131 alamamalar\u0131d\u0131r. Servet sahiplerinin bir k\u0131sm\u0131 bu varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sermayeye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmek ister ve \u00f6zelle\u015ftirmelerle finans-a\u011f\u0131r sanayi kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n kendilerine (ya da yabanc\u0131 sermayeye) devrini talep ederler. Burjuvazinin bu iki kesiminin talepleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Rafsancani liderli\u011finin bir k\u0131sm\u0131 bu talepleri sahiplenerek, ekonominin yeniden \u00f6rg\u00fctlenmesini savunur. \u00d6zellikle rejimin bask\u0131c\u0131 yap\u0131s\u0131ndan rahats\u0131z olan orta s\u0131n\u0131f kesimleri, \u00f6\u011frenciler, ekonomik serbestli\u011fi ve uluslararas\u0131 sermayeyle ili\u015fkilerin geli\u015ftirilmesini isteyen, b\u00fcy\u00fck burjuvazi olma heveslisi eski \u00c7ar\u015f\u0131 \u00fcyeleri Reformcular\u0131n taban\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturur. \u015eu an Rehberlik kurumunun ba\u015f\u0131nda olan Ayetullah Hamaney ise, geleneksel \u00fcretici s\u0131n\u0131f olarak addedilen \u00c7ar\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n(8)<\/strong> yani yerli burjuvazinin yan\u0131ndad\u0131r. Siyasi kampla\u015fmada Muhafazakarlar olarak an\u0131lan bu kesim, asl\u0131nda geleneksel \u00fcretim ili\u015fkilerinin devam\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6ren halk\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc de kapsamaktad\u0131r. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rafsancani D\u00f6nemi: Neoliberalizme Giri\u015f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1989\u2019dan 97\u2019ye kadar cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yapan Rafsancani, \u0130ran\u2019da serbest piyasa politikalar\u0131 uygulamaya ba\u015flar. Bu politikalar\u0131 destekleyen \u0130slamc\u0131 Modern Sa\u011f (Pragmatistler), uluslararas\u0131 entegrasyondan yana burjuvazinin belli kesimleri Reformcular olarak an\u0131l\u0131r. Rafsancani reformlar\u0131, 1980\u2019nin devlet kapitalizmi politikalar\u0131n\u0131 belli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclerde terk etmeye dayal\u0131d\u0131r. 1990\u2019da IMF ve D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 ile yap\u0131lan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler, \u00f6zelle\u015ftirme, d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lanma, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6zendirilmesi, bankac\u0131l\u0131k-finans sekt\u00f6rlerine a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verilmesini kaps\u0131yordu. Bu d\u00f6nemde Rafsancani ve ailesi ticaret burjuvazisinin \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc haline gelmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130ran \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck kazan\u00e7 kayna\u011f\u0131 \u015f\u00fcphesiz petrold\u00fcr. \u0130ran, Suudi Arabistan ve Kanada\u2019dan sonra d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol rezervine ve Rusya\u2019dan sonra ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck do\u011falgaz rezervine sahiptir. Devlet petrol fiyat\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015ftan faydalanabildi\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zenginle\u015fmi\u015ftir. Rakamlarla ifade edecek olursak, Tahran\u2019\u0131n petrol geliri 1997\u2019de 12 milyar dolardan 2005\u2019te 45 milyar dolara, 2009\u2019da ise 55 milyar dolara ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.(9)<\/strong> Son be\u015f y\u0131lda bu rakam\u0131n 50-100 milyar dolar aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6rmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Devletin petrol gelirleri h\u00fck\u00fcmet kazanc\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, \u00fclke d\u00f6viz gelirlerinin y\u00fczde 80\u2019ine ve ulusal gelirin y\u00fczde 70\u2019ine tekab\u00fcl ediyor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Petrolden elde edilen bu b\u00fcy\u00fck kazanc\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekonomik ve politik g\u00fc\u00e7 sanayiye olan \u00f6nemi azaltm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ayn\u0131 zamanda bu durumun bir t\u00fcr \u201crant\u00e7\u0131 ekonomi\u201d yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Devrimden sonra ekonomik politika, devlet m\u00fcdahalesini kapitalist \u201ckalk\u0131nmaya\u201d dayand\u0131ran ithal ikameci sanayile\u015fme iken, 1980\u2019lerden beri, \u00f6zellikle \u0130ran-Irak Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 1988\u2019de bitmesiyle, \u0130ran\u2019da da piyasan\u0131n serbestle\u015fmesi ve neoliberal politikalara ge\u00e7i\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ad\u0131mlar at\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Hatta bu d\u00f6nemde Bat\u0131 ve ABD ile olan ili\u015fkilerin normalle\u015fmesi kararlar\u0131 al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f, 1996\u2019da D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019ne kat\u0131l\u0131m ba\u015fvurusunda bulunulmu\u015ftur. Ancak ABD vetosuyla bu i\u015ftirak engellenmi\u015ftir. Fakat ironik bir bi\u00e7imde Hazar B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ndeki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 su kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6netilmesini desteklemek \u00fczere D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019a 359 milyon dolar bor\u00e7 tahsis etmi\u015ftir.(10)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u015eu an \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ticaret ortaklar\u0131 Japonya, \u00c7in, Hindistan, G\u00fcney Kore ve \u0130talya\u2019d\u0131r. \u0130ran, uluslararas\u0131 i\u015fb\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde enerji \u00fcreticisi ve hammadde ve teknoloji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r. \u00c7in 2011\u2019de 36,5 milyar dolarla, AB\u2019yi ge\u00e7erek \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ticaret orta\u011f\u0131 olmu\u015ftur. Hindistan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc, Japonya d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck orta\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ihracat\u0131 Asya ve Ortado\u011fu \u00fclkelerine kayarken, Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri, Hindistan, Irak, Japonya ve \u0130talya mal ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131d\u0131r. 2007-2008\u2019de \u0130ran ve Hindistan aras\u0131ndaki kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ticaret 12.896 milyar dolara ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.(11)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rafsancani, ba\u015fkanl\u0131k yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nem boyunca y\u00fczlerce kamu iktisadi te\u015fekk\u00fcl\u00fc kurar. Elde edilen k\u00e2rlar, bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n personeli olan hissedarlar aras\u0131nda payla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r ve \u00e7o\u011funlukla dini vak\u0131flara gider. \u0130slam devriminin bir ba\u015fka \u201csek\u00fclerle\u015ftirici\u201d sonucu dinsel alan\u0131n \u201cticarile\u015fmesi\u201d olmu\u015ftur. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc devlet memuru ya da \u00e7ok say\u0131da vak\u0131f, hay\u0131r kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6neticisi olarak devlet b\u00fct\u00e7esinden aktar\u0131lan b\u00fcy\u00fck paralar\u0131 y\u00f6netmektedir. \u00d6rne\u011fin Mazlum ve Engelliler Vakf\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 800 orta\u011f\u0131, 700 bin \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan\u0131, 430 milyon dolara ula\u015fan k\u00e2r\u0131 vard\u0131r. Bu k\u00e2rlar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131 da Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 ve \u00c7ar\u015f\u0131 t\u00fcccarlar\u0131n\u0131n baz\u0131 kesimlerine aktar\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Yolsuzluk bu s\u00fcrecin par\u00e7as\u0131d\u0131r; 1995 y\u0131l\u0131nda bu vakf\u0131n ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n karde\u015fi zimmetine 450 milyon dolar ge\u00e7irmek su\u00e7uyla yarg\u0131lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.(12)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rafsancani d\u00f6neminin ekonomi politikalar\u0131 ve yolsuzluk skandallar\u0131 rejimin istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmakla birlikte, rejimin ta\u015f\u0131y\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 y\u00f6netici kesim i\u00e7indeki \u00e7\u0131kar \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 ve huzursuzluklar\u0131 da art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle Hamaney, bu iktidar\u0131 zedeleyen \u201c\u0130slami de\u011ferlere ayk\u0131r\u0131d\u0131r\u201d s\u00f6ylemini s\u0131kl\u0131kla dile getirmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu arada, \u00fclkede uygulanan \u201c\u0130slami ekonomi\u201d anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7makta yarar var. \u0130slami bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemi (1983\u2019te y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe giren) asl\u0131nda b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle kapitalist uygulamalarla faizi yasaklayan \u0130slami g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f aras\u0131nda ka\u011f\u0131t \u00fczerindeki uyumdur. Bu sistemde Karzu\u2019l-hasene <\/em>ve komandit<\/em> olmak \u00fczere iki t\u00fcr mevduata izin vard\u0131r. Karzu\u2019l-hasene<\/em>, bireylere ait olan faiz getirmeyen banka mevduat\u0131d\u0131r. Ancak paran\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bankan\u0131n ya da sand\u0131\u011f\u0131n mevduat sahiplerine prim sa\u011flama izni vard\u0131r. Sistem \u201cortak sermaye\u201d sistemini an\u0131msat\u0131r. Komandit<\/em> ise, vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lard\u0131r. Banka ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n risk ve k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131 payla\u015f\u0131rlar. Faizsiz kredi veren bankalar genellikle risk ve harcamalara kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 gerektiren bir sistemi y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe sokmakla yetinirler ve bu sistem asl\u0131nda faizle bor\u00e7 vermeye denk d\u00fc\u015fer. Ayr\u0131ca, \u0130ran uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczlemde hi\u00e7bir zaman \u0130slami ilkeleri dile getirmemi\u015ftir ve \u00f6nemli anla\u015fmalar oldu\u011funda uluslararas\u0131 ticaret normlar\u0131na g\u00f6re hareket etmektedir. D\u0131\u015f \u00fclkelerde dondurulan sermayelerinden (Eurodif\u2019teki hisseler, ABD\u2019de dondurulan fonlar) faiz istemekte de bug\u00fcne kadar hi\u00e7 teredd\u00fct etmemi\u015ftir.(13)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ekonomik liberalle\u015fme, orta s\u0131n\u0131flarda belli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclerde t\u00fcketim al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmesine ve geni\u015flemesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Rafsancani\u2019nin orta s\u0131n\u0131f deste\u011fini, onun yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 t\u00fcketim toplumu ile ili\u015fkilendirebiliriz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, bu politikalar i\u015f\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131 ve kent yoksullar\u0131n\u0131n zarar\u0131na olmu\u015ftur. \u00d6zelle\u015ftirilen i\u015fyerlerinde binlerce i\u015f\u00e7inin at\u0131lmas\u0131yla i\u015fsizlik b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f; yoksul halk aras\u0131ndaki ho\u015fnutsuzluk 1991-1995 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda yedi ayr\u0131 ayaklanmayla kendini g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. 1991-92 y\u0131llar\u0131nda gecekondu isyanlar\u0131, y\u00fckselen petrol ve otob\u00fcs fiyatlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 Tahran ve \u0130slamshar\u2019daki protestolar \u015fiddetli bir bi\u00e7imde bast\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.(14)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130ran\u2019da s\u0131n\u0131flar m\u00fccadelesini anlamak i\u00e7in sosyo-ekonomik verilere bakmak m\u00fchim. D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 2006\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 rakamlara g\u00f6re, \u0130ran\u2019da ulusal gelirden faydalanan n\u00fcfusun en zengin y\u00fczde 10\u2019unun pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 33,7 iken; en yoksul y\u00fczde 20\u2019nin pay\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 2 dolaylar\u0131nda. En varl\u0131kl\u0131 kesimler gelirin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 50\u2019sine el koyarken, en yoksul kesimlerin y\u00fczde 20\u2019si gelirin y\u00fczde 5,1\u2019ine sahiptir.(15) <\/strong>\u0130ran i\u015f\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131n\u0131n durumuna bakacak olursak, 2006-2007 verilerine g\u00f6re, n\u00fcfusun y\u00fczde 23\u2019\u00fc tar\u0131mda, y\u00fczde 32\u2019si sanayide ve y\u00fczde 45\u2019i hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. \u0130stihdam\u0131n y\u00fczde 81\u2019i \u00f6zel giri\u015fimler, y\u00fczde 19\u2019u kamudad\u0131r. Kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler de ekonominin lokomotifini olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r.(16)<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hatemi: Towse\u2019ye Siyasi <\/em>(Siyasi Kalk\u0131nma)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rafsancani iktidar\u0131ndan sonra, May\u0131s 1997\u2019deki ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imlerinde y\u00fczde 70 oyla ba\u015fa gelen Muhammed Hatemi ise selefinden pek de farkl\u0131 olmayan bir program ortaya koyar: \u201cSiyasi Kalk\u0131nma\u201d (towse\u2019-ye siyasi<\/em>). Bu proje de yine piyasa yanl\u0131s\u0131 ekonomik program\u0131 devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakmadan, \u0130slami de\u011ferlere \u201cuygun\u201d, yoksul kesimleri isyana te\u015fvik etmeyecek fakat \u00f6zelle\u015ftirmeleri h\u0131zland\u0131racak cinstendir. Yoksul kesimlerin ve orta s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131n artan ho\u015fnutsuzlu\u011funu frenleyebilmek i\u00e7in Hatemi program\u0131, belli demokratik haklar i\u00e7erir. Bu d\u00f6nemde \u00f6rg\u00fctlenme, y\u00fcr\u00fcy\u00fc\u015f ve toplant\u0131 haklar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131lar azal\u0131r. Yine bu sebeple, \u00d6\u011frenci hareketinin muazzam bir bi\u00e7imde g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine \u015fahit olunur. Haziran 1999\u2019daki \u00d6\u011frenci ayaklanmalar\u0131 ile rejim, hareket alan\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131lacak en ufak bo\u015flu\u011fun kendi zarar\u0131na olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kavram\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hatemi\u2019nin 2000\u2019de tekrar se\u00e7ilmesiyle ba\u015flayan ikinci ba\u015fkanl\u0131k d\u00f6neminde, ge\u00e7en d\u00f6nemden dersler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131larak demokratik haklar \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n iyice artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. \u00c7ok say\u0131da gazete kapan\u0131r, muhalifler tutuklan\u0131r. Hatemi\u2019yi destekleyen liberaller, bu durum kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u015fa\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131\u011fa kap\u0131l\u0131rlar. Hatemi reformlar\u0131, elbette i\u015f\u00e7ilerin, \u00f6\u011frencilerin, kad\u0131nlar\u0131n protesto hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 cevapt\u0131r ve toplumsal hareketlerin ivmesini azaltmaya y\u00f6neliktir. Ancak uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekonomik program\u0131n, politik s\u00f6ylemiyle taban tabana z\u0131t olmas\u0131 \u2018reformist\u2019 imaj\u0131n\u0131 zedelemi\u015ftir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

2000-2004 boyunca, \u00fccretlerin gecikmesi veya hi\u00e7 \u00f6denmemesi, i\u015f sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve g\u00fcvenli\u011fi sorunlar\u0131 ile ta\u015feronla\u015fma sonucu meydana gelen i\u015fsizlik sonucu pek \u00e7ok i\u015f\u00e7i eylemi ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. \u00d6zellikle 1998\u2019de Hatemi iktidar\u0131n\u0131n siyaset alan\u0131nda a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6rece daha az bask\u0131c\u0131 ortamda, \u00e7elik, tekstil, cam \u00fcretim ve petrol rafinerilerinde grev ve g\u00f6steriler dahil, 90 i\u015f\u00e7i eylemi ya\u015fand\u0131. Bir ankete g\u00f6re ise, Nisan 1999\u2019dan 2000\u2019e kadar 266 grev oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. 1999 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Evi tabandan gelen bask\u0131lar sonucu 1 May\u0131s\u2019\u0131 resmi olarak kutlamak durumunda kald\u0131. 2004\u2019te bak\u0131r fabrikas\u0131nda ya\u015fanan grevler sonucu \u00e7\u0131kan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda \u00e7ok say\u0131da i\u015f\u00e7i \u00f6l\u00fcrken, 300 kadar\u0131 yaralanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ayn\u0131 ay \u0130ran Khodra\u2019da yap\u0131lan grevin ard\u0131ndan 2005\u2019te \u00fc\u00e7 kez, 2006\u2019da bir kez ayn\u0131 fabrikada grevler tekrarland\u0131. Yani i\u015f\u00e7i grevleri ve eylemlilikleri Hatemi iktidar\u0131na damgas\u0131n\u0131 vurmu\u015ftur.(17)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ahmedinejad ve \u201cMostafazan\u201d <\/em>Siyaseti<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hatemi d\u00f6neminde y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7en s\u0131n\u0131f hareketi ve rejim i\u00e7indeki krizler \u201creformcular\u201d\u0131n iktidar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7anlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bir g\u00f6stergesiydi. Burjuvazi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da kayg\u0131 yaratan bu durumu Tahran merkezli Finansal ve Yat\u0131r\u0131m Dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n y\u00f6neticisi Atieh Bahar\u2019\u0131n s\u00f6zleri iyi bir bi\u00e7imde \u00f6zetliyor: \u201cHatemi\u2019nin ilk d\u00f6nemi boyunca, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r reformist hareketin ba\u015fl\u0131ca dayanak noktas\u0131yd\u0131 fakat bu durum art\u0131k ge\u00e7erli de\u011fil. \u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r demokrasiden \u00e7ok istikrar ve d\u00fczen i\u00e7in kayg\u0131l\u0131 ve muhafazakarlarla ili\u015fkiler geli\u015ftirmi\u015f durumda. \u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r \u015fimdi \u0130ran\u2019daki sorunun par\u00e7as\u0131.\u201d<\/em>(18)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Burjuvazinin istikrar istedi\u011fi 2005\u2019te, oylar\u0131n y\u00fczde 62\u2019sini alarak se\u00e7ilen Ahmedinejad\u2019\u0131n  temel retori\u011fi yoksullardan yana, \u201csosyal adalet\u201din sa\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir devlet politikas\u0131 olmu\u015ftur. \u00d6zelle\u015ftirilen K\u0130T\u2019lerin y\u00fczde 30\u2019unu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli ailelere da\u011f\u0131tmas\u0131, \u201cpetrol gelirlerini halk\u0131n sofras\u0131na koymak, gen\u00e7lere evlilik deste\u011fi vermek, yoksullara bedava \u00f6zelle\u015ftirme hissesi da\u011f\u0131tmak\u201d gibi vaatlerle se\u00e7imi kazanmas\u0131 pop\u00fclist mesaj\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftiren bir hamle olmu\u015ftu.(19)<\/strong> Se\u00e7imlerde yoksul k\u00f6yl\u00fclerden destek almas\u0131na ili\u015fkin olarak James Petras ise, Ahmedinejad\u2019\u0131 \u201cahlaki\u201d ekonomik arzulara sahip bir \u00f6nder olarak tan\u0131mlam\u0131\u015f, onu halk\u00e7\u0131 buldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemi\u015ftir, t\u0131pk\u0131 Chavez gibi. Hatta 2009 se\u00e7imlerinde \u00e7\u0131kan protestolara \u201cemperyal istikrars\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131rma\u201d diyerek, g\u00f6stericileri halk\u00e7\u0131 \u00f6nderli\u011fe kar\u015f\u0131 ayaklanan \u201dliberal elitler\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.(20)<\/strong> Petras ger\u00e7ekleri g\u00f6rmemek\/g\u00f6rmezlikten gelmekte \u0131srar ederken; Ahmedinejad, K\u0130T gelirlerinden geri kalan y\u00fczde 70\u2019i borsada sat\u0131\u015fa sunarak bundan Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu\u2019nun (DMO) faydalanmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6yle ki, 2009\u2019un Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131m \u015firketi Etamed-e Mobin DMO\u2019ya ba\u011flanarak \u00f6zelle\u015ftirilen ulusal telekom\u00fcnikasyonun y\u00fczde 51\u2019ini sat\u0131n alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6zelle\u015ftirme h\u0131z\u0131 Rafsancani d\u00f6nemini ikiye katlam\u0131\u015f; \u00f6zelle\u015ftirilen i\u015fletmeler genellikle devlet holdingleri ya da Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan sat\u0131n al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. The Economist<\/em>\u2019in haberine g\u00f6re, Ahmedinejad\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7ilmesinden sonraki 10 ay i\u00e7inde Muhaf\u0131zlara, ihale s\u00fcre\u00e7lerine girmeksizin sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u00e2r, 4 milyar dolardan 12 milyar dolara ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.(21)<\/strong> Bug\u00fcn \u0130ran\u2019da Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 in\u015faat, otomobil, gayrimenkul ve telekom\u00fcnikasyona kadar uzanan pek \u00e7ok sekt\u00f6rde etkilidir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ahmedinejad h\u00fck\u00fcmeti, yoksullara olan \u201cyak\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d son olarak 40 milyar dolara ula\u015fan devlet s\u00fcbvansiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131rmas\u0131yla g\u00f6stermi\u015f oldu. S\u00fcbvansiyon meselesinin \u015f\u00f6yle bir anlam\u0131 daha vard\u0131r: \u0130slam Devrimi\u2019nin temel politik arg\u00fcman\u0131 ezilenden yana, sosyal adaletin tesisiydi. Hatta Humeyni\u2019nin yayg\u0131n s\u00f6ylemi \u201c\u0130slam\u2019\u0131n yoksullar\u0131n dini oldu\u011fu\u201d propagandas\u0131 \u00fczerineydi. Bu y\u00fczden Mostafazan, <\/em>ezilenlerin destek\u00e7isi olarak an\u0131l\u0131rd\u0131.<\/em> \u00d6zellikle 1988 Sava\u015f\u0131 d\u00f6neminde, tepkilerin s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenmesine y\u00f6nelik olarak ve ekonomik s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131dan \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc bir\u00e7ok hizmetin piyasa fiyat\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda sat\u0131lmas\u0131 bu anlat\u0131y\u0131 peki\u015ftirmi\u015ftir. Bu y\u00fczden bundan sonraki iktidarlar da s\u00fcbvansiyonlara dokunmaya cesaret edememi\u015fti. \u00d6rne\u011fin 1990\u2019larda Rafsancani kemer s\u0131kma politikalar\u0131 uygulamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f ve b\u00fcy\u00fck tepkiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ahmedinejad\u2019\u0131n s\u00fcbvansiyonu kald\u0131rma plan\u0131 pek kolay olmad\u0131. 2007\u2019deki ilk denemesinde \u00fclkede isyanlar ve petrol istasyonlar\u0131na sald\u0131r\u0131lar patlak verdi. Ancak 2008\u2019de enflasyonun y\u00fczde 30\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, yoksullar\u0131n ve orta s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131n al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u00fc\u015fmesi, d\u00fcnyadaki ekonomik kriz, bunu zorunlu k\u0131ld\u0131. Fakat kitlenin sessiz ama keskin g\u00fcc\u00fc, yine de h\u00fck\u00fcmeti korkutmaktad\u0131r. Bu y\u00fczden halen belli kesimlere ayda k\u0131rk dolar da\u011f\u0131t\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde Ahmedinejad gelecek \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131lda i\u015fsizli\u011fin sonlanaca\u011f\u0131 vaadinde bulundu. Fakat Financial Times<\/em>\u2019\u0131n \u015eubat ay\u0131nda yer verdi\u011fi Petrol Bakan\u0131 Mohsen Khojasteh-Mehr\u2019in a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 bu vaadin ikiy\u00fczl\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa vurur. Mehr, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin petrolden 300 milyar dolar gelir elde etti\u011fini fakat bu kazanc\u0131n yoksullar\u0131n ya\u015fam standard\u0131n\u0131 pek de etkilemedi\u011fini kabul etmi\u015ftir.(22)<\/strong> <\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

G\u00fcncel politikada Ahmedinejad\u2019\u0131n ABD ve \u0130srail kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u201cemperyalizmden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olma\u201d retori\u011fi pop\u00fclist siyasetinin bir par\u00e7as\u0131d\u0131r ve ger\u00e7eklikten uzakt\u0131r. Yani \u0130ran, devrimden sonra da, g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde de hi\u00e7bir zaman yerel ya da uluslararas\u0131 sermayeden kopmam\u0131\u015f, Bat\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 s\u00f6ylemini toplumdaki hegemonyas\u0131n\u0131 korumak ad\u0131na s\u00fcrd\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti, bu \u00e7eli\u015fkilerin bir \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcd\u00fcr ve din, kapitalizmin geli\u015fimine i\u00e7kin bir bi\u00e7imde varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015ftir. Bu noktada Walter Benjamin\u2019e kulak verelim. Benjamin, Din Olarak Kapitalizm<\/em> fragman\u0131nda kapitalizmin bir din olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyerek \u015f\u00f6yle ekler: \u201cKapitalizm i\u00e7erisinde her \u015fey ancak do\u011frudan tap\u0131nma i\u00e7erisinde anlam kazan\u0131r: Hi\u00e7bir \u00f6zel dogma, teoloji ay\u0131rt etmez. Bu bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan faydac\u0131l\u0131k onun dinsel niteli\u011fidir. (\u2026) Kapitalizmin tarihsel habisli\u011fi [i\u015fte] bu noktadad\u0131r. Tanr\u0131n\u0131n a\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr, ancak tanr\u0131 \u00f6lmemi\u015ftir\u2026\u201d<\/em>(23)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rejimin Silahl\u0131 Ayg\u0131tlar\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130ran rejiminin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir bi\u00e7imde kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 din hegamonyas\u0131, ayn\u0131 zamanda rejimin bask\u0131 ayg\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n da g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini, me\u015frula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flar. 1979 Devrimi\u2019nden sonra \u0130ran siyasal \u00f6rg\u00fctlenmesinde \u201cdevrim\u201d ve \u201cdevlet\u201d merkezli olmak \u00fczere ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan \u201cikili yap\u0131ya\u201d paralel olarak askeri sistemde de iki farkl\u0131 kurum ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bir tarafta eski rejimden kalan Ordu varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korurken di\u011fer tarafta, Ordu\u2019nun Devrime y\u00f6nelik muhtemel tehditlerini dengelemek ve totaliter rejimin yerle\u015fmesine zorlay\u0131c\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmak \u00fczere \u0130slam Devrimi Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu (Sipahi Pasdarani \u0130nk\u0131lab\u0131 \u0130slami<\/em>, DMO) kurulmu\u015ftur. Paramiliter bir yap\u0131da kurulan Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu zamanla geli\u015ferek b\u00fcy\u00fck bir askeri kuruma d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Ordu profesyonelli\u011fini koruyup siyasete uzak dururken ideolojik niteli\u011fi \u00f6n planda olan Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n gerek \u0130ran siyasetinde gerekse \u0130ran ekonomisinde a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 giderek artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130ran\u2013Irak sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sona ermesi ve Ayetullah Humeyni\u2019nin \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc \u00fczerine 1989 y\u0131l\u0131ndan itibaren \u0130ran\u2019da yeni bir d\u00f6nem ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu yeni d\u00f6nemde Ordu, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 korumakla g\u00f6revlendirilirken Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00f6rev alan\u0131 i\u00e7 g\u00fcvenli\u011fin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 ve \u201cDevrimin korunmas\u0131\u201d olarak belirlenmi\u015ftir. Humeyni\u2019nin yerine Rehber olan Hamaney, Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00f6revlerini devrimin silahl\u0131 savunmas\u0131n\u0131 yapmak, Besic<\/em> ordusunun kurulu\u015funu ve \u00f6rg\u00fctlenmesini sa\u011flamak ve devrimin ideallerini korumak -ahl\u00e2k polisli\u011fi- olarak tan\u0131mlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Halkla \u0130li\u015fkiler B\u00fcrosu taraf\u0131ndan 1996 y\u0131l\u0131nda yay\u0131nlananan bir bildiride \u201cDevrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n devrimin, rejimin, velayet-i fakih y\u00f6netimi ile \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin temellerinin, de\u011ferlerinin ve kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n tehlikeye girdi\u011fini hissetti\u011fi anda harekete ge\u00e7ece\u011fi\u201d belirtilmi\u015ftir.(24)<\/strong> Yani \u0130ran\u2019da Ordu rejimin kurucu unsurlar\u0131ndan biriyken, Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 onu dengeleyen bir g\u00fc\u00e7; DMO\u2019ya ba\u011fl\u0131 Besic<\/em>, Pasdaran, kitleler \u00fczerinde do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale ve denetim sahibi, paramiliter \u00f6rg\u00fctlenmeleri i\u00e7eren ayg\u0131tlard\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rejimin silahl\u0131 ayg\u0131tlar\u0131 olan Ordu, DMO ve ona ba\u011fl\u0131 milis grubu Besic,<\/em> devasa petrol gelirlerinden faydalan\u0131r. \u0130ran\u2019da petrol, 100 farkl\u0131 kurum ve dini \u00f6rg\u00fctlenmeye geni\u015f bir harcama g\u00fcc\u00fc verir. H\u00fck\u00fcmet, s\u00fcbvansiyonun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra vergi muafiyeti ve yard\u0131mlarla bu kurumlar\u0131 destekler. Devletin korumac\u0131 destekleriyle d\u00f6vize \u00f6zel eri\u015fim alabilirler ve \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r rekabetinden korunurlar. Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131, GSY\u0130H\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 33-40\u2019\u0131n\u0131 meydana getirir ve ticarette b\u00fcy\u00fck rol oynar. Bu rakamlar kesin de\u011fildir \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc yaln\u0131zca Dini Lider Ali Hamaney\u2019e hesap vermekle y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcd\u00fcrler. Bu gruplar kendi \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 korundu\u011fu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde Dini Lider\u2019e ba\u011fl\u0131 olmaya devam edeceklerdir. Devletin s\u00fcbvansiyonlar\u0131yla bu kurumlar ayn\u0131 zamanda yerli burjuvaziyi olu\u015fturmu\u015flard\u0131r. DMO ve Besic<\/em>\u2019in ba\u015f\u0131nda olan bir\u00e7ok isim, Ahmedinejad iktidar\u0131nda devletin \u00fcst y\u00f6netimlerine yerle\u015ftirilmi\u015flerdir.(25)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rejimin silahl\u0131 yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n kitleler \u00fczerindeki denetimi bu denli g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, yine de bu g\u00fc\u00e7, seferberlik durumlar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131flar m\u00fccadelesinin patlamal\u0131 karakterini de\u011fi\u015ftirmeye\/massetmeye yetmez. Rejim, bu ger\u00e7e\u011fi \u00e7ok iyi bildi\u011finden bu kurumlar\u0131 akan petrol gelirleriyle her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn beslemeye devam eder. Fakat her isyan dalgas\u0131 da sert bir bi\u00e7imde vuku bulur; bu, tam da m\u00fccadelelerin do\u011fas\u0131na \u00f6zg\u00fcn bir durumdur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2009 Se\u00e7imleri ve Ye\u015filler Hareketi<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bug\u00fcn \u0130ran\u2019da aral\u0131klarla b\u00fcy\u00fck patlamalar halinde vuku bulan veya \u201cbo\u015fanarak\u201d ta\u015fan halk hareketlerini \u00f6fke y\u00fckl\u00fc bir kaba\/bedene benzetebiliriz. \u00d6fkenin din nosyonuyla denetim alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131 \u00f6fkenin i\u00e7e at\u0131lmas\u0131na, biriktirilmesine neden oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in tam da isyanlar beklenmedik bir bi\u00e7imde, par\u00e7al\u0131 ve patlamal\u0131 olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar. Hat\u0131rlanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, 2009 Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imlerinde de adaylardan Ahmedinejad ve Musavi aras\u0131ndaki rejim i\u00e7i \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, birden halk isyan\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu se\u00e7imler Ahmedinejad\u2019\u0131n oylar\u0131n y\u00fczde 63\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc alarak tekrar se\u00e7ilmesi nedeniyle hile tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na sebep olmu\u015f, oylar\u0131n y\u00fczde 34\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc alan Mir H\u00fcseyin Musavi\u2019nin se\u00e7ime itiraz etmesi sonucu destek\u00e7ileri se\u00e7imin iptali ve demokratik hak ve \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fcklerin geni\u015fletilmesi talepleriyle soka\u011fa d\u00f6k\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. 15 Haziran\u2019da bir milyondan fazla insan izinsiz g\u00f6steriye kat\u0131ld\u0131, 19 Haziran\u2019dan sonra yediden fazla kentte \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ya\u015fand\u0131. Bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda i\u015fkencede \u00f6len Sohrab Arabi ve Nida Aga Sultan hareketin sembolleri haline geldi. 2.000\u2019den fazla insan tutukland\u0131, i\u015fkenceye u\u011frad\u0131. Hareket orta s\u0131n\u0131f karakterli olarak an\u0131lmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, bu protestolarda \u00e7ok say\u0131da i\u015f\u00e7i ya da \u00e7ar\u015fafl\u0131 orta ya\u015fl\u0131 kad\u0131nlar da mevcuttu.(26)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7at\u0131\u015fmalar patlak verdi\u011finde Dini Lider Ali Hamaney, protesto hareketlerinin 1979 Devrimi\u2019nin bir karikat\u00fcr\u00fc oldu\u011fu benzetmesini yap\u0131yordu. Nitekim hareket o denli heterojendi ki, bir kesim demokratik haklardan bahsederken bir kesim de \u201cBat\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131 sapmalara\u201d kar\u015f\u0131 devrim talep ediyordu. Hamaney\u2019in bu a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u015fu a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00f6nemli: 1979\u2019dan beri bu liderler, devrimci talepleri bulan\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131rma g\u00fcc\u00fcne sahipti. Milyonlarca \u0130ranl\u0131n\u0131n devrimin 30. y\u0131l\u0131nda yine ayn\u0131 taleplerle soka\u011fa d\u00f6k\u00fclmesinin \u015fiddetle bast\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, mevcut rejimin de bir kar\u015f\u0131devrimle do\u011fdu\u011funu \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir bi\u00e7imde hat\u0131rlatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.(27)<\/strong> Se\u00e7imler vesilesiyle patlak veren protesto hareketleri d\u00fcnya solu i\u00e7erisinde \u00e7e\u015fitli tart\u0131\u015fmalara sebep olmu\u015ftu. Kimi kesimler bu olaylar\u0131, rejim i\u00e7i bir kriz olarak nitelerken, kimileri de \u201cemperyalist komplo\u201d ezberini bozmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u0130ran\u2019da aday olman\u0131n zorlu\u011fu ve alternatif yoklu\u011fu nedeniyle hareketin, esasen rejimin savunucusu olan Musavi\u2019den medet ummas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00e7eli\u015fkidir. Ancak y\u00fcksek i\u015fsizlik, enflasyon oranlar\u0131, sosyal k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar kitleleri ayakland\u0131ran etmenlerdir. Musavi ve Karrubi\u2019nin bu s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 y\u00fcksek sesle dile getirmeleri bir anda kitlelerden destek bulmalar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Fakat Musavi\u2019nin \u0130ran rejimindeki yeri ve anlam\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmek bile, iktidar olsa dahi kitlelerin taleplerini kar\u015f\u0131lamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlamaya yetecektir. Mir H\u00fcseyin Musavi\u2019nin Humeyni d\u00f6neminde ba\u015fbakan oldu\u011fu ve binlerce (kimi kaynaklara g\u00f6re 30.000\u2019den \u00e7ok) solcu siyasi tutuklunun idam edilerek cenazelerinin ailelerine teslim edilmeden bo\u015f bir toprak alandan ibaret olan \u201cKhavaran\u201d toplu mezarl\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6m\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 1988 \u0130ran Siyasi Su\u00e7lu \u0130damlar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n onun ba\u015fbakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6neminde i\u015flendi\u011fi dikkate al\u0131n\u0131rsa, sosyalistler ve radikal de\u011fi\u015fim isteyen di\u011fer gruplarca bir muhalif lider olarak sahiplenilmesi elbette ki beklenemez. \u201c\u0130mam Humeyni\u2019nin miras\u0131ndan\u201d \u00f6vg\u00fcyle bahseden Musavi, protestolar\u0131n ilk haftalar\u0131nda at\u0131lan \u201cmerg ber basiji<\/em>\u201d (\u201cKahrolsun Besi\u00e7\u201d -g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc devrim muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131-) slogan\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildiride de \u201cHalk\u0131n Besi\u00e7leri karde\u015fleri olarak g\u00f6rmeleri gerekti\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ye\u015fil Hareket Jonbesh-e Sabz<\/em>, 2009 se\u00e7imleri s\u0131ras\u0131nda ve sonras\u0131nda ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 Musavi ve Karrubi\u2019nin \u00e7ekti\u011fi bir koalisyon hareketidir. Orta s\u0131n\u0131flar ile i\u015f\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131n\u0131n belli bir kesimini ve \u00f6\u011frencileri kapsar. Hareketin \u00f6nderli\u011fi ve onu destekleyen akademisyenler bunun bir sivil haklar siyaseti oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylerler ve Ayetullah Humeyni\u2019ye ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 bildirirler.(28)<\/strong> Kendilerini sistemin bekas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamaya y\u00f6nelik gerekli muhalefet g\u00fc\u00e7, \u201cdemokrasi savunucular\u0131\u201d olarak nitelerler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ye\u015fil Hareket\u2019in ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7eken Musavi ile Ahmedinejad kamplar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n sebebi, rejimin b\u00fct\u00fcn kontrol yetkisinin Fakih\u2019e, yani Hamaney\u2019e verilmesi fikridir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u015fu anda sistemin kontrol\u00fc Ahmedinejad\u2019\u0131n m\u00fcttefikleri, DMO ve g\u00fcvenlik sekt\u00f6rlerindedir. Ekonomik ve politik g\u00fcc\u00fc elinde tutan bu merkezile\u015fmeye kar\u015f\u0131, liberal reformcu gelenekten gelen Hatemi, Rafsancani, Karrubi\u2019nin egemen s\u0131n\u0131f aras\u0131ndaki e\u015fitsiz g\u00fc\u00e7 da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 tepkileridir. Bu da g\u00f6stermelik de olsa onlar\u0131n da s\u00f6z sahibi oldu\u011fu parlementer bir rejimi gerektirir. Asl\u0131nda Rafsancani\u2019nin ilgilendi\u011fi tek \u015fey \u0130ran burjuvazisine petrol gelirlerini ve yeni k\u00e2r alanlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7makt\u0131r. Fakat yine de bu deste\u011fi, protestolar\u0131n kontrol d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 halinde geri \u00e7ekilebilecek t\u00fcrdendir.  Esasen \u0130ran\u2019da rejim i\u00e7i \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve manevralar otuz y\u0131ldan daha fazla bir s\u00fcredir devam etmektedir ve bu \u00e7eli\u015fkiler hi\u00e7bir zaman rejimin do\u011fas\u0131 gere\u011fi ortadan kalkmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca bu kesimlerin temelde, Velayeti Fakih <\/em>ve onun kurumlar\u0131yla olan bir anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131 yoktur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hareketin kayda de\u011fer bir sonuca ula\u015famamas\u0131n\u0131n bir di\u011fer sebebi ise g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc protestolar\u0131n Tahran, \u0130sfahan, \u015eiraz gibi merkezi b\u00f6lgelerle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131. \u00d6zellikle \u0130ran tarihinde her zaman devrimlerin lokomotifi olan Azerbaycan b\u00f6lgesinin, Musavi\u2019nin de Azeri k\u00f6kenli olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, nispeten sessiz kalmas\u0131 anlaml\u0131d\u0131r. Ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde \u00fclkede en muhalif b\u00f6lgeler olan ve hatta 1979\u2019daki referandumun en y\u00fcksek oranda boykot edildi\u011fi K\u00fcrdistan ve Belucistan eyaletleri de sessiz kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ancak sonraki s\u00fcre\u00e7te be\u015f siyasi mahpusun idam edilmesinin ard\u0131ndan K\u00fcrdistan eyaletinde yap\u0131lan geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 eylemler ve grevler, ya da 2006\u2019da resmi gazetede yay\u0131nlanan \u0131rk\u00e7\u0131 bir karikat\u00fcr ve yaz\u0131 nedeniyle Azerbaycan b\u00f6lgesinin b\u00fct\u00fcn \u015fehirlerindeki ayaklanma, bu halklar\u0131n asl\u0131nda muhalif g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131nda say\u0131lmalar\u0131 gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Fakat Musavi\u2019nin Fars\u00ee olmayan halklar\u0131n anadilde e\u011fitim, federasyon gibi taleplerini dikkate almamas\u0131, Ye\u015filler Hareketi\u2019nin \u0130ran n\u00fcfusunun yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturan Azerilerin, K\u00fcrtlerin, Belucilerin ve di\u011fer etnik az\u0131nl\u0131klar\u0131n beklentilerini g\u00f6rmezden gelmesi bu durumu a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran \u0130slam Devrimi\u2019nde en \u00e7ok bask\u0131 ve zul\u00fcm g\u00f6ren az\u0131nl\u0131k n\u00fcfusunun Musavi\u2019yi desteklemeyece\u011fi de \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olmasa gerek.(29)<\/strong> \u00d6te yandan, \u0130ran-Irak Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019nda \u00fclkeyi y\u00f6neten Musavi\u2019nin ger\u00e7ek anlamda reformcu olmas\u0131 beklenemez.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Musavi\u2019nin vadetti\u011fi reformlara gelince, bu \u201creformlar\u201d nispeten daha imtiyazl\u0131 ve dar bir toplumsal kesimi hedefliyordu. Reform denilen \u015fey de esas\u0131nda Ahmedinejad\u2019\u0131n s\u00f6ylemlerinin yumu\u015fat\u0131larak Washington\u2019la daha iyi ili\u015fkiler kurulmas\u0131n\u0131n yolunun a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, ABD deste\u011fiyle uygulanan yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n gev\u015fetilerek \u00fclkeye yabanc\u0131 sermaye ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131ndan ibaretti. Ayn\u0131 zamanda bu reformlar neoliberal ekonomik paket ve i\u015f\u00e7ilere, k\u0131r yoksullar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik toplumsal yard\u0131m programlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131kla \u00f6zde\u015fle\u015fiyordu. Bu t\u00fcrden kemer s\u0131kma \u00f6nlemlerinin, \u0130ran toplumunun \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funu olu\u015fturan yoksullar\u0131n benimseyemeyece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r.(30)<\/strong> Bu da yoksul k\u00f6yl\u00fclerin neden Ahmedinejad\u2019\u0131n sadaka politikalar\u0131n\u0131 desteklemek zorunda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Se\u00e7im kampanyas\u0131na ili\u015fkin di\u011fer bir husus, rejimin kendi kurumlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n bir g\u00f6stergesi olmas\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130ran\u2019da bir ki\u015finin aday olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Konseyi taraf\u0131ndan onaylanmas\u0131 gerekir. Bu kurumun onaylad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ki\u015filer de, rejime s\u0131k\u0131 bir bi\u00e7imde ba\u011fl\u0131 olanlard\u0131r. Buna ra\u011fmen bu denli bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma rejimin farkl\u0131 kamplar\u0131n\u0131n \u015fiddetli bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 olarak okunabilir. Ayr\u0131ca kendi d\u00f6neminde \u201csertlik\u201d yanl\u0131s\u0131 olarak bilinen Musavi \u015fimdi \u0130ran orta s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fcnde y\u00fckselmek i\u00e7in reformist ve yenilik\u00e7i k\u0131l\u0131\u011fa b\u00fcr\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Oysa kampanyas\u0131n\u0131n destek\u00e7ileri aras\u0131nda mollalar hiyerar\u015fisinin sa\u011fc\u0131 unsurlar\u0131 ve daha da \u00f6nemlisi \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n en zengin insan\u0131 oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenen eski cumhurba\u015fkanlar\u0131ndan Ali Ekber Ha\u015fimi Rafsancani var.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Son S\u00f6zler<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130syan gelene\u011fine sahip \u0130ran s\u0131n\u0131f hareketinin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, \u00f6nemli finansal kaynaklardan beslenen ve herhangi bir muhalefeti ac\u0131mas\u0131zca bast\u0131rmaktan \u00e7ekinmeyecek totaliter bir rejim s\u00f6z konusudur. Bug\u00fcnse, Arap Devrimlerinin Ye\u015filler \u00fczerinde bas\u0131n\u00e7 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ancak Mart ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesinde H\u00fck\u00fcmet\u2019in muhalefete y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rmas\u0131 ve \u0130srail\u2019le ya\u015fanmas\u0131 muhtemel n\u00fckleer sava\u015f senaryolar\u0131n\u0131 milliyet\u00e7i duyarl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 k\u00f6r\u00fckleme ama\u00e7l\u0131 kullanmas\u0131, olas\u0131 protesto hareketlerinin ba\u015flamadan s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenmesini ama\u00e7layan hamlelerdir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz sene, \u015eubat ve Mart aylar\u0131nda s\u00fcbvansiyonlar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc protestolara \u015fahit olmu\u015ftuk. \u0130ran Meclisi\u2019nde de g\u00fcnler s\u00fcren tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan onaylanan \u00f6nergede, bu\u011fday, un, ekmek, pirin\u00e7, ya\u011f, su, s\u00fct ve \u015feker gibi temel g\u0131da maddeleri ile do\u011fal gaz, elektrik, telefon ve benzindeki s\u00fcbvansiyonlar\u0131n a\u015famal\u0131 olarak 5 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 kararla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu durumun yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahribat ve artan enflasyon toplumsal muhalefeti yeniden k\u00f6r\u00fckleyebilir. \u00d6te yandan, son se\u00e7imlerde ya\u015fanan deneyimden \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc, gelecek ayki se\u00e7imlerde de Ye\u015fil Hareket\u2019in politik program\u0131n\u0131n ve yarataca\u011f\u0131 seferberlik d\u00fczeyinin ne olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 merak konusu haline gelmi\u015ftir. Nitekim Zizek de, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz \u0130ran se\u00e7imlerini de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fi makalesinde, protesto hareketini \u2018bast\u0131r\u0131lan\u0131n geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u2019 olarak niteliyor. Sonucu ne olursa olsun, hareketin Bat\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131tlar\u0131 ile yanl\u0131lar\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesine s\u0131\u011fmayacak t\u00fcrden \u2018\u00f6zg\u00fcrle\u015ftirici\u2019 bir deneyim oldu\u011funu savl\u0131yor.(31)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nihayetinde, \u0130ran\u2019da bug\u00fcn ya\u015fanan temel sorun rejimin de\u011fi\u015fmesini isteyen kitlesel muhalefetin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu taban ile onlar\u0131 temsil etme iddias\u0131ndaki \u201creformcu\u201d hareketin \u00fcstlenmeye talip oldu\u011fu burjuvazinin \u00f6nderlikleri aras\u0131ndaki u\u00e7urumdur. \u0130\u015f\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131n\u0131n, demokrasi ve ekonomik haklar\u0131 i\u00e7in ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir rol oynayamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 her d\u00f6nemde, kitlelerin hareketin ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7eken \u00f6nderliklerin s\u0131n\u0131f \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131n pe\u015finden s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmesi her \u015fart ve ko\u015fulda m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmu\u015ftur. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan, var olan rejimler ve \u0130slamc\u0131 hareketler toplumsal m\u00fccadelelerin her zaman kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yer alm\u0131\u015flard\u0131r. Ne var ki, Arap ve Ma\u011frip devrimlerinin etkisiyle yeni olas\u0131l\u0131klar belirmi\u015ftir. Hatta \u0130ran y\u00f6netimi devrilen rejimlerin hemen ard\u0131ndan halk hareketlerini desteklediklerini, diktat\u00f6rlerin halklara y\u00f6nelik zul\u00fcmlerinin kabul edilemeyece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde mesajlar iletmi\u015ftir. \u00d6te yandan, \u00f6zellikle yan\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda ba\u015f m\u00fcttefiki Be\u015fir Esad\u2019a y\u00f6nelik isyanlar ve Suriye devrimi \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 tedirgin etmektedir. Esad\u2019\u0131n bug\u00fcn halk\u0131na y\u00f6nelik a\u011f\u0131r zulm\u00fc bizzat \u0130ran taraf\u0131ndan sessiz fakat g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir bi\u00e7imde desteklenmektedir. Bir yandan da y\u00f6netici s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131n, m\u00fccadelelerin \u0130ran topraklar\u0131na s\u0131\u00e7ramadan di\u011fer \u00fclkelerde massedilmesine y\u00f6nelik olarak maddi destek verdi\u011fi bilinmektedir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc rejim krizleriyle cebelle\u015fen burjuvazi, olas\u0131 bir halk ayaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 kesinlikle ta\u015f\u0131yamayacak durumdad\u0131r. 2 Mart\u2019ta yap\u0131lacak milletvekili se\u00e7imleri de Ahmedinejad ve ekibini ekonominin k\u00f6t\u00fcye gitmesi, enflasyonun artmas\u0131 ve yolsuzluk skandallar\u0131 sebebiyle zorlamaktad\u0131r. Bu y\u00fczden, olas\u0131 bas\u0131n\u00e7lar \u015fimdiden t\u00f6rp\u00fclenmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

   Se\u00e7imlerin \u201ckazas\u0131z belas\u0131z\u201d atlat\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in rejim, muhalefet \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 da artt\u0131rd\u0131. Tutuklu gazeteci ve aktivistlere yenileri eklendi. Yeni y\u0131ldan bu yana on gazetecinin tutukland\u0131\u011f\u0131 gelen haberler aras\u0131nda ve son iki y\u0131lda 250 gazeteci tutukland\u0131. Halen 30 gazeteci ve 24 blog yazar\u0131 i\u00e7eride. Sonu\u00e7 olarak siyasi bask\u0131lar, ekonomik kriz, devlet s\u00fcbvansiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve kapitalist s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131n muazzam bir bi\u00e7imde \u015fi\u015fmesi; s\u0131n\u0131flar aras\u0131 u\u00e7urumu art\u0131rmakta, \u0130ranl\u0131 emek\u00e7ilerin belini b\u00fckmekte, kinlerini bilemektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130ran i\u00e7in bug\u00fcn ba\u015fka bir tehdit ise, \u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019a n\u00fckleer silah \u00fcretimi bahanesiyle sald\u0131r\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah \u00fcretimi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 yapmas\u0131 (9-15 ay i\u00e7inde bu silahlar\u0131n tamamlanaca\u011f\u0131 iddia ediliyor) ba\u015fta \u0130srail ve d\u00fcnya emperyalizminin b\u00f6lgedeki \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck bir tehdit olu\u015fturuyor. Bu y\u00fczden, son olarak Avrupa Birli\u011fi (AB) \u00fclkeleri de \u0130ran\u2019a petrol ambargosu konusunda anla\u015ft\u0131 ve bu yapt\u0131r\u0131m \u0130ran ekonomisine ciddi bir darbe vuracakt\u0131r, \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc AB\u2019nin petrol ambargosu, \u0130ran ekonomisinin en iyi m\u00fc\u015fterilerinin kaybetmesi anlam\u0131na gelmektedir. Ancak Ahmedinejad h\u00fck\u00fcmeti bu n\u00fckleer sava\u015f tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015fan se\u00e7imler sebebiyle kendi lehine \u00e7evirme tela\u015f\u0131ndad\u0131r. Bat\u0131\u2019ya ve \u0130srail\u2019e n\u00fckleer tesisleriyle \u2018meydan okuyan\u2019 ve bunun kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara maruz kalan \u0130ran y\u00f6netimi -ki bu yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar en \u00e7ok da halk\u0131 zorlamaktad\u0131r- \u2018d\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7lere\u2019 kar\u015f\u0131 kenetlenme arg\u00fcman\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirecektir. Bu durum da, hem \u00fclkedeki insan haklar\u0131 ihlallerinin g\u00f6rmezden gelinmesine hem de muhalefetin sesinin k\u0131s\u0131lmas\u0131na uygun bir zemin olu\u015fturacak ve s\u00fcreci Ahmedinejad\u2019\u0131n lehine \u00e7evirecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130srail ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda ya\u015fanacak n\u00fckleer bir sava\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131; Suriye rejiminin kaderi, ABD\u2019deki se\u00e7imler, d\u00fcnya ekonomik krizi ve Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki devrimlerin kaderi gibi belli parametrelere ba\u011fl\u0131. \u00d6zellikle \u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer tesislerine kar\u015f\u0131 f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131nda bulunmas\u0131n\u0131n zamanlamas\u0131nda birka\u00e7 olas\u0131l\u0131k konu\u015fuluyor. Bunlardan birincisi, Kas\u0131m 2012 ABD ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imleri ve Cumhuriyet\u00e7i adaylar\u0131n kazanmas\u0131 durumunda bu ihtimalin g\u00fc\u00e7lenece\u011fi. \u0130kincisi, Suriye\u2019de Esad rejiminin \u00e7\u00f6kmesi ve Suriye \u00fczerinde \u0130ran etkisinin bitmesi veya azalmas\u0131. Fakat ba\u015fka bir \u015fekilde, Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nin \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde ve ABD\u2019nin onay\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 n\u00fckleer bir sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flat\u0131lmas\u0131 da s\u00f6z konusu olabilir. Sonu\u00e7 ne olursa olsun, Devrimci Marksistler olarak tutumumuz  \u0130ran\u2019a herhangi bir emperyalist ve\/veya Siyonist m\u00fcdahaleye kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadele ve \u0130ran halk\u0131n\u0131n desteklenmesi olacakt\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u0130ranl\u0131 emek\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131n emperyalizme kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadelesi molla diktat\u00f6rl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7s\u00fczle\u015ftirecek dinamikleri i\u00e7inde bar\u0131nd\u0131rmakta ve bu m\u00fccadele, ancak molla diktat\u00f6rl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    T\u00fcm bu politik atmosferin alt\u0131nda ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta sordu\u011fumuz soruya, yani Arap Devrimleri ba\u011flam\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019daki emek\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131n kaderine d\u00f6necek olursak; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir s\u0131n\u0131f partisinden yoksun \u0130ranl\u0131 emek\u00e7ilerin Ortado\u011fu\u2019da ya\u015fanan bu muazzam itkinin y\u00f6r\u00fcngesine girip girmeyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcnde bulunmak i\u00e7in erken olsa da, s\u00fcrecin her \u00fclkede kendi dinamiklerini yaratarak devam etti\u011fi bilinen bir ger\u00e7ek. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fin derslerinden hareketle, \u0130ran\u2019da i\u015f\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131n\u0131n ve yoksul az\u0131nl\u0131k halklar\u0131n, kendi s\u0131n\u0131f \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na dayal\u0131, burjuvaziden ve emperyalizmden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir hareketin \u00f6znesi olabilmeleri elzem. Ancak b\u00f6ylesi bir hareket, sadece \u0130ran\u2019da de\u011fil, t\u00fcm Ortado\u011fu ve d\u00fcnyada s\u0131n\u0131flar m\u00fccadelesinin dengelerini de\u011fi\u015ftirmeye muktedir olacakt\u0131r. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u015eubat 2012<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dipnotlar:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1.)<\/strong> \u0130ran \u015fiir ve resminin \u00f6nemli ismi Sohrab Sepehri\u2019nin Sekiz Kitap<\/em> adl\u0131 toplu \u015fiirlerinin 7. kitab\u0131d\u0131r Ye\u015fil\u2019in Hacmi<\/em>. Ye\u015fil, \u0130ran siyaset tarihinde \u0130slam\u2019\u0131n de\u011fil; protesto hareketlerinin rengi olagelmi\u015ftir. \u201cSekiz Kitap\u2019tan Se\u00e7meler\u201d, \u00e7ev. Nazila Hamedan Nejad, Epos, 2008. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

2.)<\/strong> Sad\u0131k Hidayet, K\u00f6r Bayku\u015f, <\/em>\u00e7ev: Beh\u00e7et Necatigil, YKY, s.63.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3.)<\/strong> P\u0131nar Ar\u0131kan, \u201c\u0130ran Tarihinin En B\u00fcy\u00fck Bankac\u0131l\u0131k Skandal\u0131 ve \u0130\u00e7 Siyasetteki Yans\u0131malar\u0131\u201d,25.10.2011,http:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/tr\/yazigoster.aspx?ID=2811<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4.)<\/strong> Olivier Roy ve Farhad Khosrokhavar, \u0130ran: Bir Devrimin T\u00fckeni\u015fi<\/em>, Metis Yay\u0131nlar\u0131, 2000, s.19.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5.)<\/strong> Ervand Abrahamian, Humeyn\u00eezm: \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti \u00dczerine Denemeler, \u00e7ev. Mehmet Toprak, Metis Yay\u0131nlar\u0131, 2002.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

6.)<\/strong> \u0130ran Devrimi\u2019ne ili\u015fkin ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 okuma bkz. \u0130ran Devrimi: Din, Anti-Emperyalizm ve Sol<\/em>, der: Serpil \u00dc\u015f\u00fcr, Belge yay\u0131nlar\u0131; Devlet, \u0130deoloji ve Devrim: \u0130ran, Nikaragua ve Filipinler Devrimlerinin Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131 Analizleri,<\/em> Misagh Parsa, \u0130leti\u015fim Yay\u0131nlar\u0131, 2004; \u0130ran\u2019da Devrim ve Kar\u015f\u0131 Devrim, Phil Marshall, www.antikapitalist.net\/kutuphane\/acik-kitaplik\/iran\/iran.pdf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

7.)<\/strong> Karl Marx, Louis Bonaparte\u2019\u0131n 18 Brumaire\u2019i, Sol Yay\u0131nlar\u0131, 1976.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

8.)<\/strong> \u00c7ar\u015f\u0131 burjuvazisi, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n geleneksel \u00e7ar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda faaliyet y\u00fcr\u00fcten, \u0130slami de\u011ferlere ba\u011fl\u0131, \u0130slam Devrimi\u2019ne destek vermi\u015f, \u015eii ulemas\u0131 ile finansal ve k\u00fclt\u00fcrel ba\u011flar\u0131 olan ticaret ve finans sermayesini kapsar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

9.)<\/strong> Iranian Students News Agengcy (ISNA).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

10.)<\/strong> Farhang Morady, \u201c\u0130ran, \u0130slamc\u0131l\u0131k, K\u00fcreselle\u015fme ve Protesto Hareketi\u201d, \u00e7ev: Ak\u0131n Sar\u0131, Selime G\u00fczelsar\u0131, Praksis<\/em>, say\u0131 26, 2011. Yaz\u0131n\u0131n orijinali i\u00e7in bak.: http:\/\/www.isj.org.uk\/?id=585.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

11.)<\/strong> Bak.: http:\/\/trade.ec.europa.eu\/doclib\/docs\/2006\/september\/tradoc_11392.pdf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

12.)<\/strong> Peyman Jafari, \u201c\u0130ran\u2019da Par\u00e7alanma ve \u0130syan\u201d, \u00e7ev: Gaye Y\u0131lmaz-Tolga T\u00f6ren, Praksis<\/em>, say\u0131 26, 2011.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

13.)<\/strong> Khosrokhavar-Roy, 2000, age.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

14.)<\/strong> A. Bayat, Activism and Social Development in the Middle East, International Journal of the Middle East Studies 34, bak.:  www.merip.org.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

15.)<\/strong> Bak.: www.devdata.worldbank.org.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

16.)<\/strong> <\/em>Iran Statistical Yearbook, 2006-2007.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

17.)<\/strong>Colin Barker, Devrim Provalar\u0131<\/em>, \u00e7ev: \u0130rem Y\u0131lmaz-Umut Haskan, Yordam Kitap, 2010; Peyman Jafari (2011), agm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

18.)<\/strong> Peyman Jafari, \u201cRupture and revolt in Iran\u201d, bak.: http:\/\/www.isj.org.uk\/index.php4?id=585&issue=124.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

19.)<\/strong> Y\u00fcksel Ta\u015fk\u0131n, \u201c\u0130slam Devriminin 30.y\u0131l\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 yeniden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek\u201d, Birikim<\/em>, Say\u0131 242, Haziran 2009.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

20.)<\/strong> James Petras, \u201cIranian Elections: The \u2018Stolen Elecetions\u2019 Hoax\u201d, 18.06.2009, www.globalresearch.ca\/index.php?.context=va&aid=14018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

21.)<\/strong> The Economist<\/em>, 19 Haziran 2007.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

22.)<\/strong> FT, 14 \u015eubat 2011.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

23.)<\/strong> W. Benjamin, \u201cDin Olarak Kapitalizm [74. Fragman]\u201d, \u00e7ev: Ak\u0131n Sar\u0131, Praksis<\/em>, say\u0131 26, s.183-184.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

24.)<\/strong> Bayram Sinkaya, \u201c\u0130ran\u2019da Asker-Siyaset \u0130li\u015fkileri ve Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131n\u0131n Y\u00fckseli\u015fi\u201d,  bak.: http:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/tr\/trUploads\/Yazilar\/Dosyalar\/2010316_bayramsis.pdf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

25.)<\/strong> Khosrovkhavar ve Roy (2000), age<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

26.)<\/strong> Robert Fisk, \u201cIran\u2019s Day of Destiny\u201d, 16.06.2009,  bak.: http:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/opinion\/commentators\/fisk\/robert-fisk-irans-day-of-destiny-1706010.html<\/p>\n\n\n\n

27.)<\/strong> Peyman Jafari (2011), agm<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

28.)<\/strong> Hamid Dabashi, \u0130ran: Ketlenmi\u015f Halk<\/em>, Metis Yay\u0131nlar\u0131, 2008.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

29.)<\/strong> Sevda Zenjanl\u0131, \u201c\u0130ran Ye\u015fil Hareket\u2019in 1. Y\u0131ld\u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc geride b\u0131rak\u0131rken, 14.06.2010, bak.: http:\/\/bianet.org\/bianet\/toplum\/122717-iran-yesil-hareketin-1-yildonumunu-geride-birakirken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

30.)<\/strong> Bill Van Auken, \u201cMusavi \u201cKemer S\u0131kma\u201d Program\u0131 Savunman\u0131n Bedelini \u00d6d\u00fcyor\u201d, 16.06.2009, bak.:http:\/\/bianet.org\/bianet\/bianet\/115246-musavi-kemer-sikma-programi-savunmanin-bedelini-oduyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

31.)<\/strong> Slavoj Zizek, \u201cPopulism, Democracy and Iran: Will the Cat Above the Precipice Fall Dow?\u201d, 25.06.2009, bak.: http:\/\/www.payvand.com\/news\/09\/jun\/1280.html.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cBir g\u00fcn gelece\u011fim ve bir haber getirece\u011fim. Damarlara \u0131\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6kece\u011fim. Ve seslenece\u011fim: Hey, sepetleriniz uykuyla dolu Elma getirdim, g\u00fcne\u015fin k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 elmas\u0131n\u0131.\u201d Sohrab Sepehri, Ye\u015fil\u2019in Hacmi(1) Ortado\u011fu\u2019da olup bitenleri anlaman\u0131n yolunun \u0130ran\u2019dan ge\u00e7ti\u011fini s\u00f6ylemek herhalde abart\u0131l\u0131 bir de\u011ferlendirme olmayacakt\u0131r. Zira b\u00f6lgenin siyasi tarihinde \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n do\u011frudan veya dolayl\u0131 olarak i\u00e7inde bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir geli\u015fme hemen hemen yok […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":295,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1082],"tags":[120,364,363,47],"class_list":["post-294","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2022-iran-devrimi","tag-iranda","tag-muhalefet","tag-rejim","tag-ve"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/294","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/22"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=294"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/294\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1809,"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/294\/revisions\/1809"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/295"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=294"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=294"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=294"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}