{"id":1600,"date":"2020-04-07T11:43:59","date_gmt":"2020-04-07T08:43:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/trockist.net\/?p=1600"},"modified":"2020-05-05T21:55:50","modified_gmt":"2020-05-05T18:55:50","slug":"covid19-salgini-dunya-ekonomisi-ve-turkiye","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/2020\/04\/07\/covid19-salgini-dunya-ekonomisi-ve-turkiye\/","title":{"rendered":"COVID-19 salg\u0131n\u0131, d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve T\u00fcrkiye\ufeff"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
D\u00fcnya ekonomisi\n2008 y\u0131l\u0131ndan beri yap\u0131sal bir kriz i\u00e7inde olsa da bu krizin gidi\u015fat\u0131 zikzakl\u0131\nilerledi. \u00dclkeden \u00fclkeye farkl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6steren bu krizin, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131na gelindi\u011finde\nd\u00fcnya genelinde a\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Fakat herkesin dilinde -Covid19 salg\u0131n\u0131\nhen\u00fcz peyda olmam\u0131\u015fken- 2020\u2019nin k\u00fcresel resesyon y\u0131l\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131na dair\ns\u00f6ylenceler vard\u0131. \u00c7e\u015fitli veriler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 2020\u2019nin ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan umut\nvadetmedi\u011fi anlat\u0131l\u0131yorken, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bir vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada\narz ve talebi \u015foka u\u011frat\u0131p neredeyse durduracak d\u00fczeye indirece\u011fini kimse\nhesaba katmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Oysa b\u00f6yle bir salg\u0131n\u0131n SARS ve MERS gibi korona tipi vir\u00fcs\nepidemilerinin ard\u0131nda \u00e7ok olas\u0131 oldu\u011fu dillendiriliyordu. Bu tip bir salg\u0131n\u0131n\npandemiye yol a\u00e7ma ihtimalinin y\u00fcksekli\u011fi y\u0131llard\u0131r bilim d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda\nkonu\u015fuluyorken bununla ilgili hi\u00e7bir \u00f6nlem almayan kapitalizmin kendisidir.\nDolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu pandemi kapitalizmin krizine d\u0131\u015fsal bir etki olarak\nde\u011ferlendirilemez. Bizzat kapitalizmin kendi yap\u0131sal bir sorunu olarak \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f\nve yay\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu nedenle pandemi ile m\u00fccadele kapitalizmle m\u00fccadeleden ayr\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmemelidir.\nAyn\u0131 \u015fekilde pandeminin ekonomiye etkilerini yeni bir kriz olarak de\u011fil, 2008\nkrizinin bir a\u015famas\u0131 olarak okumak ve analiz etmek gerekir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fukuyama\u2019n\u0131n\n\u201ctarihin ve i\u015f\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131n\u0131n sonu\u201d tezi, Huntington\u2019\u0131n \u201cs\u0131n\u0131f m\u00fccadelesi yerini\nk\u00fclt\u00fcr ve din \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u201d gibi arg\u00fcmanlar\u0131n hepsi sadece son 12\ny\u0131lda ya\u015fanan iktisadi ve politik de\u011fi\u015fimlerle ger\u00e7ek anlamda tarih oldu.\nSadece pratikte de\u011fil teorik olarak da par\u00e7alanan bu arg\u00fcmanlar\u0131n \u00fczerine\npandeminin etkisinin s\u0131n\u0131fsal oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fi eklenmi\u015f ve bir kez daha i\u015f\u00e7i\ns\u0131n\u0131f\u0131n\u0131n ve s\u0131n\u0131f m\u00fccadelesinin \u00f6lmedi\u011fi ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Salg\u0131n\u0131n\nsosyoekonomik etkisinin derinli\u011fi pandeminin uzunlu\u011funa ba\u011fl\u0131 olsa da mutlaka\nbirtak\u0131m sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 olacak; bunlar\u0131n politik de\u011fi\u015fimlere yol a\u00e7\u0131p a\u00e7mayaca\u011f\u0131 ise\ntamamen s\u0131n\u0131f m\u00fccadelesinin \u015fiddetine ve gidi\u015fat\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131. D\u00fcnya Sa\u011fl\u0131k\n\u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn pandemi ilan\u0131ndan Nisan ay\u0131n\u0131n ilk haftas\u0131na kadar ki s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde\nbile ekonomik gidi\u015fat d\u00fcnya genelinde h\u0131zlanarak bozuluyor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Petrol sava\u015f\u0131<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fi tamamen kaybedilmi\u015f durumda, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fin ak\u0131betini ise salg\u0131n\u0131n tepe noktas\u0131na ne zaman ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 belirleyecek. Fakat bundan \u00f6nce y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde \u00f6nemli bir ekonomik de\u011fi\u015fim oldu. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n ABD kaya gaz\u0131 \u00fcreticilerine zarar vermek i\u00e7in d\u00fcnya petrol \u00fcretiminin k\u0131s\u0131lmas\u0131na yana\u015fmamas\u0131 ve Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n petrol \u00fcretimini daha da art\u0131rmas\u0131 petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131 25 dolara (%60) kadar gerileyerek son 18 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu fiyatlara m\u00fcdahale edilmedi\u011fi takdirde salg\u0131n atlat\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra bile petrol\u00fcn bu kadar ucuz olmas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiye etkisi \u00e7ok daha uzun vadeli olacakt\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla d\u00fcnya ekonomisi zaten bir petrol \u015foku alt\u0131n pandemiye girdi. Ancak \u015fu an g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ki petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden en \u00e7ok etkilenen ABD\u2019deki kaya gaz\u0131 \u00fcreten \u015firketler Trump \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131yor. Suudi Arabistan ve Rusya’n\u0131n petrol \u00fcretimini yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 milyon varil d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmelerini bekledi\u011fi ile ilgili a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131ndan sonra petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda bir miktar y\u00fckseli\u015f oldu. Fakat y\u00fckseli\u015fin as\u0131l sebebi d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olan \u00c7in\u2019in petrol rezervlerinin doldurmak i\u00e7in petrol al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131. Petrole olan \u00c7in talebi artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u015fu an fiyatlarda (35 dolar) bir y\u00fckselme var. (Grafik: Son 3 ayda Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n seyri). <\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n
Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat\nd\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc alt\u0131nda iktisadi nedenlerden \u00e7ok \u00fclkeler aras\u0131 politik s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmeler\nyat\u0131yor. Bir emperyalist kartel olan Petrol \u0130hra\u00e7 Eden \u00dclkeler \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc (OPEC)\nzaten petrol fiyat kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc elinde bulunduruyor. Fakat bu kontrol s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z\nde\u011fil, politik olaylar\u0131n belirleyicili\u011fi alt\u0131nda \u015fekilleniyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin Libya i\u00e7\nsava\u015f\u0131 ya da Rusya\u2019n\u0131n OPEC \u00fcyesi olmamas\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131 uzun vadede belirleyici\nd\u0131\u015fsal etkenler. OPEC\u2019nin en fazla petrol satan \u00fclkesi Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n\npetrol\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinden satmas\u0131 ve elde etti\u011fi dolar geliriyle ABD\ndevlet tahvili almas\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 finansal d\u00f6ng\u00fc ABD-Suudi ortakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n iktisadi\ntemelini olu\u015fturuyor. Fakat ABD\u2019nin 2008-2018 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol\n\u00fcretimi iki kattan fazla art\u0131rarak g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcretimde Rusya ve Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131\ngeride b\u0131rakmas\u0131 ard\u0131ndan 2019 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin petrol ihrac\u0131n\u0131n\nithalat\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7mesi en fazla Rusya ve Suudi Arabistan\u2019a rahats\u0131zl\u0131k veriyor.\nD\u00fcnya petrol \u00fcretiminin %20\u2019sini tek ba\u015f\u0131na t\u00fcketen ABD\u2019nin ayn\u0131 zamanda kendi kendine\nyeter bir \u00fcretim kapasitesine sahip olmas\u0131 OPEC \u00fclkeleri ve Rusya i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck\nk\u00e2bus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Covid19 salg\u0131n\u0131\nile d\u00fcnya petrol talebi h\u0131zla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 iniyor. U\u00e7aklar havalimanlar\u0131nda gemiler de\nlimanlarda bekletiliyorken ve sanayi \u00fcretiminde b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ya\u015fan\u0131rken,\npetrol\u00fcn bu g\u00f6reli ucuzlu\u011funa ra\u011fmen talep edilmemesi \u00e7ok ola\u011fan. \u00dcstelik bu\ndurum petrol arz\u0131 artm\u0131\u015fken ya\u015fand\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019in salg\u0131n\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131p petrol\nithalat\u0131na h\u0131z vermesi k\u0131sa vadede fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 bask\u0131lasa da uzun vadede\nRusya ve Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n \u00fcretimlerini maksimum d\u00fczeyde tutma \u00e7abas\u0131 daha\nbelirleyici olacakt\u0131r. T\u00dcPRA\u015e\u2019\u0131n y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131nda 26 Mart\u2019a kadar %38 de\u011fer\nkaybetmesi de g\u00f6steriyor ki bu durum T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in \u00fcretim maliyeti a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131nda\nolumlu olsa da \u00fcretimin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc salg\u0131n ortam\u0131nda bir anlam ifade etmiyor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Tahribat\u0131n boyutu<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
\u0130lk etapta t\u00fcm\n\u00fclkeler s\u0131n\u0131r ge\u00e7i\u015flerini \u00f6nce zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131 sonra tamamen durdurdular. Hatta\nbir\u00e7ok \u00fclke, \u015fehirler aras\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015fleri bile durdurmu\u015f durumda, buna T\u00fcrkiye de\ndahil. Bu durum d\u00fcnya turizminin tamamen durdu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Sekt\u00f6rel\ntahribat sadece Fransa, \u0130talya, \u0130spanya ve T\u00fcrkiye gibi bol turist \u00e7eken\n\u00fclkelerde de\u011fil, salg\u0131n\u0131n hen\u00fcz yayg\u0131nla\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 tropik \u00fclkeleri dahi vuracak.\nSeyahat k\u0131s\u0131tlamas\u0131 olmasa bile insanlar\u0131n seyahat etmekten korktu\u011fu bir\nd\u00f6nemde turizm l\u00fcks haline geliyor. D\u00fcnya Turizm \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019ne g\u00f6re 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda Turizm\nsekt\u00f6r\u00fc %30 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclecek. Bu t\u0131pk\u0131 Uluslararas\u0131 \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn (ILO) d\u00fcnyada\n25 milyon insan\u0131n i\u015fsiz kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesi gibi iyimser bir tahmin olarak\nduruyor. Yine de bu oran \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu, 2019 y\u0131l\u0131\nboyunca toplam turizm geliri olan 1,5 trilyon dolar\u0131n y\u0131l i\u00e7in 450 milyar\ndolar\u0131n\u0131n kayb\u0131 demek. \u00d6yle ki, pandemi \u00f6ncesi 2020\u2019de toplam gelirin 2 trilyon\ndolar olmas\u0131 beklenirken, tahmin edilen turist say\u0131s\u0131 ise 1 milyar 600 milyon\nidi. T\u00fcrkiye ise ge\u00e7en y\u0131l turizmden 35 milyar dolar gelir elde etmi\u015fti. Bu\ny\u0131lki beklenti ise 41 milyar dolarken bu rakam\u0131n yan\u0131na bile yakla\u015fmak hayal\nolacak gibi duruyor. Elbette sekt\u00f6rde \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan milyonlarca i\u015f\u00e7inin ak\u0131beti ise\nbelirsiz. \u00d6zellikle hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 telafi edecek bir yap\u0131s\u0131 yok.\n\u0130nsanlar bir y\u0131l tatil yapmad\u0131lar diye ertesi y\u0131l iki kez tatil yapmazlar. Her\nkay\u0131p, kay\u0131p olarak kalacakt\u0131r. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Gelirleri h\u0131zla\nazalan ve azalmaya devam edecek olan insanlar\u0131n ev ve otomobil almak gibi bir\n\u00f6nceli\u011fi olmayacakt\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de \u00fcretilen Avrupa sermayeli bir\u00e7ok otomobil\nmodeli yine Avrupa\u2019ya ihra\u00e7 ediliyor. Salg\u0131n\u0131n binek otomobil ihracat\u0131na Mart\nay\u0131 etkisi \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oldu. End\u00fcstrinin en b\u00fcy\u00fck pazar\u0131 olan Almanya’ya Mart\u2019ta\n%25 azalmayla 292 milyon dolar ihracat yap\u0131ld\u0131. Fransa’ya %46 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 183\nmilyon dolar, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k’a da %26 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcle 181 milyon dolar ihracat\nger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirildi. Sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn genel ihracat\u0131 mart ay\u0131 i\u00e7in bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n mart\nay\u0131na g\u00f6re %28 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ocak-Mart ay\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 kapsayan ilk \u00e7eyrekteki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ise\n%10. Ayn\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin nisan ay\u0131 i\u00e7inde de s\u00fcrece\u011fi rahatl\u0131kla s\u00f6ylenebilir.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Genel olarak\nsalg\u0131n s\u00fcrecinde hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn (konaklama ve yiyecek hizmetleri, seyahat\nacentesi, tur operat\u00f6r\u00fc, rezervasyon hizmetleri, g\u00f6steri sanatlar\u0131 ve e\u011flence\nhizmetleri; k\u00fct\u00fcphane, ar\u015fiv, m\u00fcze ve di\u011fer k\u00fclt\u00fcrel hizmetler, spor hizmetleri\nile e\u011flence ve dinlence hizmetleri son olarak hava yolu ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hizmetleri)\ntopyek\u00fbn etkilenece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k. T\u00fcrkiye i\u015f\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131n\u0131n %56,5\u2019i bu sekt\u00f6rde yer\nal\u0131yor. Sadece T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de de\u011fil d\u00fcnyan\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde bu sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\nolumsuz etkilenece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcrse \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda genel i\u015fsizlik, pandeminin\nyarataca\u011f\u0131 en b\u00fcy\u00fck problem olacak. Ayr\u0131ca \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan ald\u0131\u011f\u0131\nkredilerin borcu 193 milyar dolar. Bu kredinin 66 milyar dolar\u0131 sadece hizmet\nsekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla i\u015f yapamayacak olan bu sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u00f6demesi gereken\nmilyarlarca dolar da cabas\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
ABD\u2019den gelen veriler kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya olaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z i\u015fsizli\u011fin boyutunu \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 bir bi\u00e7imde ortaya koyuyor. ABD\u2019de pandemi \u00f6ncesi i\u015fsiz say\u0131s\u0131 5,8 milyon ki\u015fiydi. Mart ay\u0131n\u0131n 3. haftas\u0131 3,3 milyon ki\u015fi daha i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurusu yapt\u0131. Fakat mart ay\u0131n\u0131n 4. haftas\u0131nda 6,6 milyon ki\u015fi daha i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurusunda bulundu. Bu art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 ABD tarihinde daha \u00f6nce hi\u00e7bir kriz d\u00f6neminde g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi. (Grafik: 60\u2019lar\u0131n sonlar\u0131ndan g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcze kadar ABD i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131.) <\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n
Sadece iki\nhaftal\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015fla i\u015fsiz say\u0131s\u0131 sadece ABD\u2019de 15,7 milyon olmu\u015fken, ILO\u2019nun\nd\u00fcnya genelinde 25 milyon i\u015fsiz beklemesi \u00e7ok ama \u00e7ok iyimser bir tahmin. Elbette\ni\u015fsizli\u011fin yarataca\u011f\u0131 tahribat\u0131n boyutunu pandeminin s\u00fcresi belirleyecek. Yine\nde i\u015fsiz kalacak kitlelerden dolay\u0131 d\u00fcnya genelinde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir talep d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\ng\u00f6zlemlenecektir. Bu durum hali haz\u0131rda salg\u0131ndan etkilenmekte olan arz\nmiktar\u0131n\u0131 daha da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekecektir. K\u00fcresel ticaretin aksamas\u0131, her \u00fclkenin\nmevcut iktisat politikalar\u0131na etki ederek i\u00e7 talebe d\u00f6n\u00fck ve kendi kendine\nyetmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan devlet eliyle kurumsal iktisad\u0131n yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir\nara d\u00f6nem gelebilir ki bu salg\u0131n sonras\u0131 \u201ctoparlanmay\u0131\u201d da kapsayacak \u015fekilde\nilerleyebilir. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 \u00fclkeden \u00fclkeye farkl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6sterecek ve o \u00fclkenin\npolitik e\u011filimleri ve s\u0131n\u0131f m\u00fccadelesi taraf\u0131ndan belirlenecektir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc\npandeminin 3 ay s\u00fcrmesi ile 6 ay s\u00fcrmesi aras\u0131ndaki maliyet fark\u0131 iki kat\nde\u011fil, logaritmik artan oranl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te d\u00fcnya i\u015f\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131n\u0131n en\n\u00f6nemli m\u00fccadele talebi ise \u201c\u0130\u015ften atmalar yasaklans\u0131n\u201d olmas\u0131 gerekmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Finansal\n\u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z para basma<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Uluslararas\u0131\nFinans Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn raporuna g\u00f6re 2020\u2019nin sadece ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde d\u00fcnya\nborsalar\u0131n\u0131n kayb\u0131 18 trilyon dolar oldu. Finansal alanda yarat\u0131lan balon ne kadar\nfazla ise kay\u0131plar da o denli fazla oluyor. Yaratt\u0131klar\u0131 de\u011ferler sanal oldu\u011fu\ni\u00e7in o finansal ara\u00e7lar\u0131n de\u011ferleri de h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Zaten d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin\n2008\u2019den beri toparlanamamas\u0131n\u0131n as\u0131l sebeplerinden biri ekonomideki\nfinansalla\u015fma. K\u00e2r oranlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fen sermayedarlar daha fazla k\u00e2r i\u00e7in finansal\nalana y\u00f6neldik\u00e7e, olmayan paray\u0131 d\u00f6nd\u00fcrmekle me\u015fgul oluyorlar. Bu s\u0131rada sanayi\nve tar\u0131msal s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar daha da art\u0131yor ve zincirleme olarak iktisadi buhranlar peyda\noluyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc iktisadi hayat son derece ger\u00e7ek, s\u0131n\u0131flara dayal\u0131 ve nihayet\nsosyolojiktir. Finansal ara\u00e7lar\u0131n ini\u015f \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fl\u0131 seyri i\u00e7inde yarat\u0131lan balon,\nbir fabrika i\u015f\u00e7isinin \u015falterleri indirmesi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda tuzla buz oluveriyor.\nFinans\u0131n devasa rant\u0131 reel sanayi i\u015f\u00e7ilerince yarat\u0131lan art\u0131 de\u011fer kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda\nbir anda buharla\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00c7\u0131karlar\u0131 gere\u011fi\nbu irrasyonelli\u011fi s\u00fcrd\u00fcren d\u00fcnya burjuvazisi, yine irrasyonel kararla t\u00fcm\nd\u00fcnyaya para pompalamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. ABD, Avrupa ve Japonya merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n\nk\u0131sa s\u00fcrede basmay\u0131 taahh\u00fct etti\u011fi para miktar\u0131 3 bu\u00e7uk trilyon dolara\nyakla\u015f\u0131yor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi\nde bu salg\u0131na \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7s\u00fcz yakaland\u0131. TL\u2019nin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferinin bu\ndenli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu bir ortamda turizmin ve ihracat\u0131n (2019 ihracat geliri 180\nmilyar dolard\u0131) 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda rekor k\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fuluyorken \u015fimdi salg\u0131ndan en\n\u00e7ok etkilenecek sekt\u00f6rler bunlar olacak. Ayr\u0131ca T\u00fcrkiye bor\u00e7lanma maliyeti en\ny\u00fcksek olan \u00fclkelerden biri kredi sigortas\u0131 olarak \u00f6zetleyebilece\u011fimiz kredi\nriski primleri (CDS) 300\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde olan \u00fclkelere bor\u00e7 verme riskli olarak\nkabul edilirken, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin CDS primi 3 Nisan 2020 itibariyle 666,8\u2019e dayanm\u0131\u015f\ndurumda. Bor\u00e7 bulmak bu kadar zorken para ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez\nBankas\u0131 (TCMB) elindeki d\u00f6vizleri takas ederek de sa\u011flayabilir, fakat TCMB\u2019nin\nnet rezervleri 20,8 milyar dolar olarak g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Piyasadan takas yoluyla\nal\u0131nan d\u00f6viz bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kart\u0131rsak geriye eksi 5 milyar dolar kal\u0131yor. Yani\nrezervler bitmi\u015f. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bir ba\u015fka para\nbulma y\u00f6ntemi de ABD merkez bankas\u0131 FED\u2019in kap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7almak. Salg\u0131n nedeniyle\nellerinde ABD tahvili bulunan \u00fclkelere o tahvil miktar\u0131 kadar dolar verece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klayan\nFED verdi\u011fi ka\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131 toplamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. TCMB\u2019nin elinde ise 2,8 miyar dolarl\u0131k\nABD tahvili var. Be\u015f y\u0131l \u00f6nce bu rakam 80 milyar dolard\u0131. Rahip Bronson, Halk\nBank davas\u0131, S-400\u2019ler gibi gerilimler neticesinde TCMB ABD ka\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131ca\nenden \u00e7\u0131karmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu kap\u0131 da kapal\u0131. FED, 2 trilyon dolar\nbas\u0131p piyasaya sa\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkenin merkez bankas\u0131yla takas\nanla\u015fmas\u0131 yapt\u0131. \u00d6rne\u011fin Brezilya MB\u2019si ile 60 milyar dolarl\u0131k takas antla\u015fmas\u0131na\nkar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k T\u00fcrkiye kapsam d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131. Geriye iki se\u00e7enek kal\u0131yor. TCMB\u2019nin\npara basmas\u0131 ya da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin IMF\u2019nin kap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7almas\u0131. Neredeyse t\u00fcm burjuva\niktisat\u00e7\u0131lar IMF\u2019nin en risksiz se\u00e7enek oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Para basmay\u0131\ndillendirenler de var. Para basmak iyi y\u00f6netilebilirse k\u0131smi zararla\natlat\u0131labilir. Ama mevcut iktidar\u0131n para bas\u0131p Kanal \u0130stanbul gibi in\u015faat\nprojelerine giri\u015fme ihtimali bir\u00e7ok sermaye yanl\u0131s\u0131 iktisat\u00e7\u0131y\u0131 bile\nkorkutuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
IMF\u2019nin kap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n\n\u00e7alma se\u00e7ene\u011finin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131 rejimin IMF kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 olmas\u0131ndan kaynaklanm\u0131yor.\nBu durumun sebebi ekonomik olmaktan \u00e7ok politik. T\u00fcm ekonomiyi, hatta ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z\noldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenen TCMB\u2019yi bile y\u00f6nlendiren, iktisadi alan\u0131 iktidar\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftirmek\nve g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek i\u00e7in elinde tutmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir iktidar IMF b\u00fcrokratlar\u0131na bir\n\u015feylerin kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc devretmek istemez elbette. Say\u0131\u015ftay\u2019\u0131n bile \u00e7al\u0131\u015famad\u0131\u011f\u0131\nbir \u00fclkede birtak\u0131m kalemlerin IMF komiserlerinin denetimine girmesi rejim i\u00e7in\nkabul edilemez. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Geriye sadece\npara basma se\u00e7ene\u011fi kal\u0131yor. Para birimi rezerv para olmayan T\u00fcrkiye gibi\n\u00fclkelerin para basmas\u0131 Almanya\u2019n\u0131n ya da ABD\u2019nin para basmas\u0131ndan \u00e7ok daha\nriskli. Emperyalist \u00fclkeler para basman\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 enflasyonist bask\u0131y\u0131\nparalar\u0131n\u0131 di\u011fer \u00fclkelere da\u011f\u0131tarak a\u015fabiliyorlarken T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00f6yle bir\n\u015fans\u0131 yok. Yine de TCMB para basmaya karar verdi. Bas\u0131lacak paraya bir kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k\ng\u00f6stermek gerecekti. O da t\u00fcm i\u015f\u00e7ilerin \u00fcrettikleri de\u011ferle olu\u015fturulmu\u015f olan \u0130\u015fsizlik\nFonu oldu. 130 milyar TL\u2019nin birikti\u011fi \u0130\u015fsizlik Fonu hazine bonosu olarak\nTCMB\u2019ye verildi. Bu ka\u011f\u0131tlar kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda para basarak hazineye bor\u00e7 olarak\nverilmi\u015f olacak. E\u011fer para kullan\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra tekrar TCMB\u2019ye d\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fclmez ve\nyok edilmezse, dolar, faiz ve enflasyon yeniden \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde\nartacakt\u0131r. Paran\u0131n hazineden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p tekrar TCMB\u2019ye d\u00f6nmesi i\u00e7in kamu\nharcamalar\u0131n\u0131n ve b\u00fct\u00e7enin k\u0131s\u0131lmas\u0131 yani ekonomide salg\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmelerin\nya\u015fanmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Nereden bak\u0131l\u0131rsa bak\u0131ls\u0131n en iyi ihtimaller bile k\u00f6t\u00fc\nsenaryo. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu ortamda \u201cbiz\nbize yeteriz\u201d s\u00f6yleminin ekonomik de\u011fil siyasi oldu\u011fu da ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r.\nPara zaten yarat\u0131l\u0131yorken, insanlardan 10\u2019ar lira toplaman\u0131n hi\u00e7bir iktisadi\ngetirisi yok. Salg\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 buhran i\u00e7inde pop\u00fclist politikan\u0131n bir par\u00e7as\u0131\nolmaktan \u00f6teye gidemiyor. Biz ise en ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 \u00f6demelerinin\ndurdurulmas\u0131 ve bankalar\u0131n birle\u015ftirilmesiyle \u00e7ok rahat kaynak\nyarat\u0131labilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyoruz. Para ve mali politikalar\u0131n birle\u015ftirilmesi, t\u00fcm\nk\u00f6pr\u00fc ve oto yollar\u0131n ve kritik \u00f6nemdeki sanayi kollar\u0131n\u0131n acil olarak\nkamula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131yla, i\u015ften atmalar\u0131n yasaklanarak, kitlesel i\u015fsizli\u011fin \u00f6n\u00fcne\nge\u00e7ilmesi gerekti\u011fini belirtiyoruz. Para basmak gibi uzun vadede hi\u00e7bir anlam\u0131\nolmayan kapitalist \u00f6nlemlerin yerine son derece ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i ve acil \u00f6nlemleri\nortaya koyuyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
D\u00fcnya ekonomisi 2008 y\u0131l\u0131ndan beri yap\u0131sal bir kriz i\u00e7inde olsa da bu krizin gidi\u015fat\u0131 zikzakl\u0131 ilerledi. \u00dclkeden \u00fclkeye farkl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6steren bu krizin, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131na gelindi\u011finde d\u00fcnya genelinde a\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Fakat herkesin dilinde -Covid19 salg\u0131n\u0131 hen\u00fcz peyda olmam\u0131\u015fken- 2020\u2019nin k\u00fcresel resesyon y\u0131l\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131na dair s\u00f6ylenceler vard\u0131. \u00c7e\u015fitli veriler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 2020\u2019nin ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan umut vadetmedi\u011fi anlat\u0131l\u0131yorken, k\u00fcresel […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":1605,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[924,703],"tags":[888,863,862,857,859,858],"class_list":["post-1600","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-covid-19","category-ekonomi-politik","tag-covid","tag-covid-19","tag-covid19","tag-koronavirus","tag-kovid-19","tag-kovid19"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1600","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1600"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1600\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1606,"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1600\/revisions\/1606"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1605"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1600"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1600"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trockist.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1600"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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